'Latino voters will be the deciding factor' in 2024 election. Here's why it matters
Published in Political News
SACRAMENTO, CALIF. — California’s Latino population no longer looks the same as it did two decades ago, and a study highlights the untapped potential for a community who routinely has low voter turnout numbers.
The change in the community is featured in a report published Wednesday by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. Researchers used U.S. Census data to provide the demographic and socioeconomic findings of the state’s Latino eligible voters. Most notably, the eligible voter population increased from 3.9 million to 8.2 million in the last 22 years.
Latinos now account for almost one-third of all eligible voters in California and are the second-largest racial or ethnic group after whites. Much of that growth has been fueled by U.S.-born Latinos turning 18, said Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, director of research at the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute.
Nearly half the share of young eligible voters in California are Latino.
The increase in the eligible voter population is particularly noteworthy this year as Latinos will be crucial to the outcome of congressional elections across the state. Many toss-up elections could determine which political party controls Congress next year. Voter turnout for Latinos remains low in elections.
“There are quite a few districts that are very competitive and where Latino voters will be the deciding factor,” Dominguez-Villegas said.
The report also identifies ways to tailor how analysts and political parties may target this electorate. Dominguez-Villegas said these people should understand the Latino population is not only growing but also diversifying.
While Mexican Americans still make up the majority of the state’s Latino population, there has been a notable increase in Central and South American communities. Dominican and Venezuelan populations have more than doubled from 2010 to 2020. Dominguez-Villegas said this diversification is expected to continue in the coming years.
The community is also shifting away from mostly consisting of immigrants. About 75% of the population are U.S.-born Latinos.
Still, political outreach in both English and Spanish should remain a priority. Nearly half of Latino eligible voters are bilingual, while about 20% percent only speak Spanish.
The campaign for presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris recently released new ads in both English and Spanish focused on Latino voters. In June, former president Donald Trump announced a “Latino Americans for Trump” coalition.
“Spanish is still a very effective way to reach out to a very large number of people, and is needed, if you want to get them out to vote,” Dominguez-Villegas said.
The UCLA report highlights the overrepresentation of Latinos in low-income brackets, at lower rates of education attainment and struggling to buy homes. These socioeconomic factors will likely be in the minds of voters when they head to the ballots in November.
“That’s what could motivate people to register and go out to vote,” Dominguez-Villegas said.
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