How do you explain why an ultra-experienced politician makes a major speech on the behalf of a legislative goal that is both doomed to fail and unpopular with voters? Especially when his speech is boycotted by the bill's chief backers and consists of one big lie after another?
President Joe Biden's speech in Atlanta on Tuesday raised these ...Read more
One way to anticipate what may be ahead in politics is to gauge the balance of power in the nation's two political parties. The Republican Party has always been centered on people regarded by themselves and others as "typical" Americans but who do not by themselves comprise a majority. The Democratic Party has always been a coalition of out-...Read more
I want to add a few notes to my Christmas weekend column on the Census Bureau's July 2021 state population estimates and what stories they tell about growth and decline in the first 15 months of the coronavirus pandemic.
THE IMMIGRATION BUST
The big news is about immigration. In the years from 2010 to 2019, the Census Bureau recorded an ...Read more
As a Christmas present to statistics lovers, the Census Bureau has released its estimates of the population of the nation and the 50 states as of July 1, 2021. The Bureau admits up front that, due to COVID, its numbers are subject to more uncertainty than usual. But overall, they provide important clues as to how Americans have coped with the ...Read more
"If you pull the camera back and think about 1965, and think about last week, there's been massive improvement. The question is why so many people pretend that that's not true."
That bracing dose of wisdom comes from John McWhorter, Columbia University linguistics professor and author of several books on other subjects, going back to his 2000 ...Read more
Here's a suggestion for those who think that partisan redistricting -- or, as is often the case with these plaints, partisan redistricting by Republicans -- threatens to destroy American democracy. Take a look at "The Long Red Thread," the recent history by Sabato's Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik of House of Representatives elections from 1964...Read more
The Supreme Court, as this is written, is hearing oral arguments in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, challenging Mississippi's law banning, with a few exceptions, abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. There's a powerful argument that the Court can't logically uphold this statute, which is less restrictive than most ...Read more
Why the hatred of Kyle Rittenhouse? Why was there such widespread dishonest news coverage of the case against him that his acquittal by the Kenosha, Wisconsin, jury came as an unwelcome surprise to so many? For example, so-called comedian Stephen Colbert's recent comment ("If he didn't break the law, we should change the law") shows he's ready ...Read more
What's wrong with the economy? Nobody seems quite sure, but it's clear that the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed in March, on top of the $900 billion approved in December, the last full month of the Trump administration, has not had the intended results.
Yes, the economy has grown, and so have wages. But the ...Read more
As in the 1880s, we live in an era of polarized partisan parity, in which changes of opinion among independent voters can sweep election results. One year ago, Joe Biden was elected president with 51% of the popular vote. Now, with his job approval down to 42%, his party is in trouble.
That's obvious from Republican Glenn Youngkin's 51-49 ...Read more
President Joe Biden returned the morning of Nov. 3 to a nation that no longer supports him or his party.
Virginia, which he carried 55% to 44% in 2020, has elected Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor, Republicans for lieutenant governor and attorney general, and recaptured a majority in the House of Delegates.
Even more startlingly, in New ...Read more
Confessions of error are rare enough in woke America that they should be strictly construed against the speaker. Two such confessions (the legal term is "admissions against interest") suddenly appeared last week.
The first confession came in an Oct. 20 letter from Principal Deputy Director of the National Institutes of Health Lawrence Tabak. He...Read more
State legislative special elections provide an interesting index of partisan sentiment these days. That wasn't so in the late 20th century, when clever local candidates and notables often got voters to cross party lines. But in this century of increasing partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting, local special elections are a proxy for ...Read more