Brazil election: Bolsonaro falls behind Lula after link to scandal-plagued banker

Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on May 22, 2026

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RIO DE JANEIRO — President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is leading Brazil’s presidential election as Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro suffers from his ties to the man at the center of a massive banking scandal, a new poll showed.

Lula leads Bolsonaro by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, in a hypothetical runoff election, according to a Datafolha survey published Friday.

The poll is the latest to suggest that Bolsonaro’s connection to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, the former chief executive of Banco Master SA, is weighing on his candidacy ahead of the October election.

Datafolha had found the candidates tied at 45% last week in a survey that was carried out largely before The Intercept Brasil reported that Bolsonaro had sought millions of dollars in funds from Vorcaro to support a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Banco Master is currently mired in Brazil’s biggest bank fraud scandal, a saga that threatened to upend the presidential race even before the publication of leaked audio messages between Flavio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro.

Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing, saying he sought private funds for a private project. But the latest revelations are undermining his efforts to wield corruption — among the top concerns for voters — as a political cudgel against the leftist Lula.

The 80-year-old leader has sought to stimulate the economy and shield consumers from higher fuel prices ahead of the election.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people on May 20 and 21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.