Commentary: While grads fret about AI taking jobs, small businesses need buyers
Published in Op Eds
If splashy headlines are to be believed, artificial intelligence is already consigning new graduates to a life of unemployment. The anxiety is not unfounded. Entry-level roles are disappearing and economists have yet to reach a consensus on how deep or lasting AI’s labor market effects will be. Yet if we only assume the worst, we might miss an appealing opportunity taking shape for young workers: Baby boomer entrepreneurs are rapidly retiring without clear successors.
So, if you’re struggling to see your place in the future workforce or if college debt feels like a shaky bet in the AI era, consider building your credit, hustling and going for a business loan instead. The next chapter of work might be one you write yourself.
No one should approach the AI situation rashly. We’ve heard the message of worker demise before. Offshoring, immigration and globalization have taken turns as the employment villain du jour. Yes, AI’s impact on the labor market may end up being more drastic — but it’s still just forming and is far from finished.
Meanwhile, the labor market is already adjusting. One visible shift is a rise in entrepreneurship and small-business formation as more Americans respond to uncertainty by striking out on their own. That instinct — to build rather than wait — may prove to be not just reactive, but exactly the right response to a changing economy.
And for those following the entrepreneurial instinct, a demographic shift may provide the missing piece of the puzzle. Owners of existing businesses tend to be older. According to the Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey, over half of U.S. employer businesses are already run by people 55 or older. Project Equity notes that 2.9 million boomer-owned businesses employ 32 million Americans and generate about $6.5 trillion annually.
It’s not clear what will happen to huge numbers of these businesses. The Exit Planning Institute projects that approximately 4.5 million — representing more than $14 trillion in wealth — must change hands by 2033. Yet, astonishingly, nearly 85% of boomer-owned businesses lack a formal succession plan. If even a fraction close their doors rather than sell, the ripple effects on jobs would be devastating — no AI required.
What if the larger structural shift isn't an algorithm stealing your cubicle, but an aging business owner flipping off the lights one last time? And what if that’s not a crisis, but a generational opportunity?
Ambitious young Americans should consider owning and operating these businesses rather than reflexively pursuing expensive four-year degrees. Increasingly, both students and educators recognize that universities may have overstated the labor-market value of their degrees. We’ve long known that many jobs don’t require four years of college. Economist Bryan Caplan has argued that much of what colleges provide is costly signaling rather than practical skill-building.
Imagine if AI’s threat to entry-level jobs helps end the costly college myth. Instead of chasing prestige diplomas, more students might pursue practical two-year associate degrees paired with targeted micro-credentials directly applicable to running small businesses soon needing new owners.
As for policymakers, they should resist sweeping, feel good responses and instead fix the real constraints holding this transition back. Today’s tax code does the opposite of what the moment demands.
Just as some young workers must be redirected from the firms that are deemphasizing entry-level work, small business owners need to invest in training them. These tend to be the workers who one day buy the business and fund a nice retirement. The tax code denies small businesses the ability to fully expense training costs, largely leaving that option to bigger firms.
Fixing it by allowing immediate, full expensing of legitimate training, particularly for small businesses, would be a practical step. So would easing access to small-business loans and taking another look at regulations that might unnecessarily get in the way of young entrepreneurship.
A true embrace of entrepreneurship, creativity and the skills that AI complements (rather than competes with) can’t be driven by government alone; it demands a cultural shift. Leaning into the shift doesn't downplay AI’s potential disruptions. It helps equip young people with the skills and confidence to find their place, including by seizing opportunities left by retiring entrepreneurs.
If you’re one of those young workers, before taking another $100,000 student loan, consider a small-business loan, practical training and the chance to become your own boss. America needs owners and creative leaders as urgently as programmers. It needs thriving small businesses to keep operating. If we miss this opportunity, commentators will predictably blame the latest technology. If we embrace it, we could experience an entrepreneurial renaissance.
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Revana Sharfuddin is a research fellow with the Labor Policy Project at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
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