Outsiders won Minnesota GOP backing. Are they well-known enough to win elections?

Kendall Qualls delivered an unusual closing message to a crowd of Republicans deciding whether he should be the party’s endorsed candidate for governor.

“I’m the one candidate that’s a nobody‚" Qualls said.

“And God likes nobodies,” he continued from the stage at the GOP convention in Duluth in May. “I don’t have an office title behind my name, I don’t have big national media exposure. I’m just someone that loves God, loves this country and I’m fighting to save it.”

It worked. Delegates picked Qualls, an Army veteran and retired health care executive, over Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell. That makes him a favorite to win the GOP’s August primary, since Republican voters usually follow the party’s endorsement.

Qualls and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who Republicans endorsed for U.S. Senate, have made their status as outsiders a central theme of their campaigns. They describe a lack of political experience as an asset, saying people are frustrated with the status quo and are voting against establishment-backed candidates around the country.

“Name ID and money doesn’t work this midterms,” Schwarze said.

But it also carries serious risks. In a year when Republicans are hoping to win their first statewide election in 20 years by capitalizing on Minnesota’s fraud scandals, Qualls and Schwarze’s dismal name recognition — and lagging fundraising — means they may also have a tougher time reaching voters, assuming they win their primary elections.

Half of voters do not know who Qualls is, according to last month’s Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll. And nearly 70% did not recognize Schwarze. In contrast, the Democratic candidates for governor and Senate had widespread name recognition.

“No amount of scrappiness is going to help you because no one is going to hear your message,” said Amy Frederiksen, a Republican political consultant who has run statewide campaigns and is a former GOP leader of the state Senate.

Schwarze and Qualls are both running in contested primary elections, and their Republican opponents have leaned on extensive political track records or better name ID.

Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sidelines broadcaster running for U.S. Senate, boasts a celebrity status that made her a household name. Lindell, meanwhile, is the best-known Republican candidate for governor, polling shows.

While Tafoya is also an outsider who has never held public office, Schwarze has painted her as part of the Republican establishment because of powerful national GOP organizations backing her run.

Qualls has called out Demuth and other Republicans in the “St. Paul swamp” who have struck spending deals with the DFL at the Legislature.

“We’ve tried politician after politician, insider after insider,” Qualls said. “Now people around the country are hoping that we summon the courage to try something different.”

Frederiksen said this outsider pitch resonates with populist Republican delegates who represent the party’s grassroots. Many want a candidate who is “of the delegates” and bring a notion that “anybody really can be president or governor,” she said.

But Frederiksen said there is a key difference between outsider candidates like Qualls and Schwarze and those like President Donald Trump or former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura.

“These people had 100% name ID,” she said. “(Trump) was a celebrity. Same with Jesse Ventura, in his own right.”

She said it also takes serious cash for a candidate to get their message out for someone who isn’t well-known. She predicted a Republican would need between $5 million to $10 million, at the very least, to mount a serious campaign.

Frederiksen ran state Sen. Karin Housley’s unsuccessful campaign for U.S. Senate in 2018 and raised around $5 million and said that “wasn’t even close to enough money” to get the job done.

So far, Qualls isn’t there. He had only $34,000 left in his campaign account at the end of May. Demuth has only marginally better name recognition, but she reported $518,000 on hand and knocked Qualls as effectively being out of money.

Schwarze reported about $223,000 on hand in his most recent report in the Senate race, far behind Tafoya’s $1.9 million. Schwarze said he’ll report raising more than $300,000 in the latest quarter, but he also previously donated $40,000 to his campaign and recently reported a $50,000 to $100,000 line of credit as a loan to the campaign.

In the Republican governor’s race, voters are most familiar with Lindell, who has become a national figure thanks to his advocacy for Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. Minnesota Poll respondents also liked him the least.

Even so, Lindell led a different poll conducted by KSTP/Survey USA, highlighting the power of name recognition in a crowded primary field. Many Republicans view Lindell as the weakest general election candidate, however.

The campaign arm of Senate Republicans has backed Tafoya in the Senate race, boosting her already considerable fundraising power, because the organization views her as the most electable candidate in Minnesota.

Tafoya is much better-known than Schwarze and had better favorability ratings. Tafoya also led in the KSTP poll while Schwarze registered single-digit support and trailed former NBA player Royce White.

Tafoya said the poll confirmed her campaign has the “momentum and resources to compete” against the DFL. She launched a TV ad in late June highlighting her political priorities and history as a sports broadcaster. Schwarze has not been on the airwaves.

Schwarze said unlike Tafoya, he hasn’t benefited from heavy spending by D.C. groups. But he said primary voters are engaged and will side with him on the issues, since he has taken harder-line stances on issues like guns and abortion.

He said he’ll focus on digital ads and direct mail, using the GOP’s resources and activists as the endorsed candidate.

“I’m not going to be on a lot of TV because that’s really expensive and I don’t have a lot of money,” Schwarze said.

“I’m engaging the actual people that are going out to actually vote in the primary.”

Talking to reporters after his endorsement victory, Qualls said his story of rising from poverty in New York City and a mobile home park in Oklahoma to a career in the Army and in business will resonate with swing voters.

Qualls said he had no name recognition when he ran for Congress in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District in 2020 and won more votes than other Republicans have in that district since, even though he lost the race.

An adviser to Qualls’ campaign says he has a strong stable of volunteers and grassroots support that will help him succeed in the same way, even without gobs of money. When it comes to a general election, the Qualls campaign hopes he will appeal to suburban voters while also revving up the Republican base in greater Minnesota.

Both Schwarze and the Qualls campaign said they’re tapping into an anti-establishment streak that has swept through both Democratic and Republican primary races.

The candidates can point to a handful of examples, including U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie getting ousted in a primary by a Trump-backed opponent, and a businessman and farmer upsetting Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary for governor in Iowa. Trump has not made any endorsements in Minnesota’s statewide races.

Schwarze said Democratic insurgents are also claiming victories across the country, and even in Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has momentum in a race against U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, who he views as the more establishment-backed candidate.

“When I talk about the name ID, that is absolutely something I need to overcome, but right now I need to overcome that with 325,000 people” in the primary, Schwarze said.

He has long argued that Navy SEALs have been successful in elections, including Montana Sen. Tim Sheehy, a Minnesota native.

“The best metric for future success is past performance,” Schwarze said.

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