SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Early primary election returns left open the possibility that no Democrat would make the general election in what was supposed to be a friendly Sacramento-area congressional district, after a stacked field of the party’s candidates split Democratic votes and Rep. Kevin Kiley entered the race as an independent.

Pre-election polling indicated Kiley would likely make the general election in the 6th District race but face one of four Democrats who had jumped at the chance to run in the newly drawn left-leaning district with no incumbent candidate. But with around 48% of the vote counted, Kiley and Rocklin resident Michael Stansfield, a little-known Republican candidate, were leading in the race as of Wednesday.

Stansfield captured a significant vote share despite telling The Sacramento Bee he did not pay for any signs or advertisements in the race. Many of his fellow Republicans might find his campaign, as outlined to a reporter Wednesday, to be worrying on closer examination. He is driven not by any affiliation with the party’s policies, he told The Bee, but by a desire to convince Evangelical conservative voters there are biblical grounds for them to oppose Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and support practitioners of Islam.

But his candidate statement twists scripture to cast Jewish people as treacherous and contains antisemitic tropes, a rabbi with the conservative synagogue Mosaic Law Congregation told The Bee. That synagogue’s rabbis raised concern with a gubernatorial candidate’s ballot statement, which contained antisemitic conspiracy theories, earlier this election cycle. Stansfield’s statement too is “very disturbing,” Rabbi Ricki Lobel said, as was his position as a lead contender to reach the general election.

With almost half the votes counted in the 6th Congressional District, according to the Associated Press, Kiley had 26.8% of the vote and Stansfield had 22.2%. The leading Democrat, pediatrician and former state Sen. Richard Pan, had 21.2%. The next Democrat, Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, had 11%.

Stansfield led Pan by slightly more than 1,100 votes, and there are reasons Pan’s supporters, and Democrat strategists in both California and nationally, remain optimistic. Only 42% of the vote in Sacramento County, where Pan has been leading, has been counted. The county is not expected to report additional vote results until Friday.

Fallout from gubernatorial chaos?

Many Democrat voters held onto their ballots until the last minute this year because of the unsettled gubernatorial primary. Data indicate that later-counted mail ballots are more likely to fall for that party’s candidates.

Still, even a narrow win would be awkward for California Democrats, after party leaders asked voters to redraw the state’s congressional district maps in order to flip seats from red to blue and counteract Republican redistricting drives in other states. The 6th Congressional District was supposed to be a safe pickup in that map. The early result is also a feather in the cap for Kiley, who left the Republican Party following the redistricting, and still appears safely in the top two as an independent, despite Stansfield’s picking up many GOP voters.

The number of candidates in the race had made the outcome hard to predict, Kiley told The Bee at his election night party. “I think the number of votes we got is a testament that this is what voters are looking for,” he said, referring to his newfound partisan independence.

In his election night speech to supporters that had gathered for him at a coffee shop in Roseville, Kiley kept up his criticism of Proposition 50 – but this time with a note of triumph.

“Certain politicians think they can move lines around on map and choose your representative for you,” he said, drawing boos. “We still get to vote. And we will not let self-serving politicians of either party take away our representation.”

Democrats remain confident in Pan’s chances

Democrat strategists, meanwhile, said they’re confident they won’t be locked out of the general election.

“Lots of Dem(ocrat) ballots outstanding and (Pan) will make it,” Paul Mitchell, the Democrat voting data expert behind the maps of Prop 50, posted on X on Wednesday morning. “But there were warning signs that the Republican could be a risk and those signs were ignored.” Mitchell did not respond to a message requesting comment Wednesday morning.

Pan expressed confidence in his path forward in a statement, citing the large number of uncounted ballots in Sacramento County.

“This district deserves a Congress member who has worked to improve lives in our neighborhoods and will represent the people to make sure the government works for us,” Pan wrote. “I will be that Congress member.”

Stansfield’s campaign website is mostly biblical discourse, including a depiction of dialogue he writes portraying a conversation occurring between himself and God.

In another section — titled “Why I run as a Republican…” — Stansfield writes that between the two political parties, “the Republicans know the Bible the best and are the best able to comprehend and proclaim the message. They are also those most in need of understanding.”

Stansfield had been a Democrat until President Joe Biden supported Israel during the war with Gaza, he told The Bee. He voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein in 2024.

His campaign is self-funded with a $17,441 donation, according to the Federal Election Commission. He secured that money through a bank loan, he told The Bee.

Unintended consequences of Prop 50

The election night twist was just the latest way in which the 6th District has exemplified the confusing political game of musical chairs unleashed by Prop 50’s passage. The district became an open race after Rep. Ami Bera, who currently represents it, announced he would run in the 3rd Congressional District, which Kiley currently holds. That seemed to set up a Bera vs. Kiley challenge in a redrawn district that now favored Democrats.

But Kiley walked way from that contest and went looking for a district in which he could be more competitive. He ultimately settled on the 6th, which encompasses where he actually lives.

Democrat candidates, meanwhile, piled into the open race. Besides Pan and Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero and Lauren Babb Tomlinson, a public affairs officer for Planned Parenthood clinics in Northern California and Nevada, also mounted strong campaigns. Tomlinson was just behind Ho in the early tallies with 10.4% of the vote, while Guerrero had 7% and a fifth Democrat, Tyler Vandenberg, had 1.4%.

Tomlinson called Stansfield’s current second-place standing “shocking.” She attributed the early result to extreme partisanship, low turnout and a crowded field of well-known Democratic candidates.

“It’s actually the most fascinating thing about this race for me,” Tomlinson said.

If forthcoming vote tallies do swing in Pan’s favor, then Kiley faces a very tough general election. Although Kiley raised far more money than his opponents in the primary, Pan could quickly build up a campaign fund war chest for the general election if Democratic support consolidates around him.

Tomlinson remained confident that a Democrat would advance to face and beat Kiley.

“I think we will see the result we want, which is a Democrat helping take back the House,” she said.

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