Have rising material expectations made marriage feel less attainable for today’s young adults?

Marriage rates have steadily been declining for several decades. Roughly one-third of Gen Z is expected to remain single by age 45, and to perhaps never marry at all.

A common reason young adults give for not being married is a lack of financial resources. And a popular narrative these days says that declining wages among working-class young men makes supporting a family far more challenging than in the past.

But young men today aren’t doing worse financially than earlier generations. This is particularly true for those in higher income brackets, who have had substantial earnings gains. Even among working-class young men, though, earnings have fluctuated during the past several decades with periods of growth and decline, rather than trending downward. In recent years, their earnings have reached historic highs. Yet all throughout, marriage rates have tumbled.

If young adults aren’t doing worse financially, what might be driving their perceptions that they’re not financially ready to marry? Perhaps material expectations for marriage have climbed so high that marriage seems out of reach.

For a while, researchers have observed that marriage has shifted from a “cornerstone” of—a foundation upon which adults build their lives—to a “capstone”—something pursued only after achieving significant milestones. If the material living-condition milestones have outpaced the financial capacity of many young adults, more of them may believe they aren’t ready for marriage.

U.S. Census Data and data from the American Housing Survey show how much material living conditions have changed for young, married adults. While this doesn’t directly tell us whether material expectations for marriage have increased, it does show that it was normal for young adults in the past to marry with far fewer material resources.

In 1970, the median man married at age 23. The typical married 23-year-old man had one child and was living in a rented two-bedroom, one-bathroom home. Only about a quarter of them owned their homes.

Amenities were limited: only 37% had air conditioning (just 10% had central AC), 47% had a washing machine, 30% had a clothes dryer, and 9% had a dishwasher. And of course, these households didn’t possess more recent inventions, like microwaves, computers, internet, smartphones, etc., that are ubiquitous today.

Today, the median age of first marriage for a man is 30 (2023 is the most recent year data is available). About 60% of married men at that age are homeowners. Their typical home has three bedrooms and at least two full bathrooms. Most of these homes include the amenities that used to be rare: 81% have central AC, 93% have a clothes washer and dryer, and 83% have a dishwasher.

Family size is similar today for 30-year-old married men as it was for 23-year-old married men in 1970, so young married families today have significantly more space and amenities per person too.

Even comparing married 30-year-old men in both periods shows similar findings—that married men today having larger homes and more amenities. Homeownership rates are about the same for men at both times, around 60%.

Family size for 30-year-old men today is smaller though (a median of three people in the household) compared to 30-year-old men in 1970 (a median of four), so families today have more space and amenities per person still.

We would expect higher living standards as time passes, as it demonstrates a healthy economy. But if material prerequisites for marriage now include homeownership, bigger homes, and far more modern amenities, this could create a significant barrier to marriage, especially for those with more modest means.

Ironically, delaying or forgoing marriage may also limit men’s earnings, making them less able to support a family. Researchers find that marriage tends to boost men’s earnings, which may be driven by the increased motivation to support a family.

Government policies also reduce the incentive to work, particularly for men with lower earnings. Government disability programs and welfare programs reduce the need to work, and welfare programs actively penalize marriage.

The rise in material expectations for marriage has multiple causes. Greater relationship instability—higher divorce rates, as well as increased forms of less stable family arrangements like cohabitation—may encourage people to pursue financial independence. This requires more time to invest in personal education and career development. Changing norms around sex and childbearing make it easier to delay marriage.

As young adults invest more time in education and career, they may become accustomed to higher consumption—more travel, new wardrobes, and paid services—that is harder to sustain with family formation.

There are many reasons for declining marriage. But higher material expectations may be an important part of the equation that’s being overlooked. Helping young adults marry and form families will require taking all these factors into consideration.

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Rachel Sheffield is a Research Fellow in Welfare and Family Policy in The Heritage Foundation’s Hermann Center for the Federal Budget.

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