Hispanic voters are down on President Donald Trump, and a majority are poised to support Democratic candidates in midterm elections this fall. But that doesn’t mean this crucial bloc is coming home to Democrats — or that it’s satisfied with the party’s agenda.

Democrats are leading the generic ballot gauging which party Hispanic voters would prefer to control the House of Representatives, 54% to 27%, according to a recent national survey of 3,000. But the analysis, conducted by both Democratic and Republican pollsters for UnidosUS, also shows that Hispanic support has a soft underbelly that could cost the party votes in the midterm elections and reduce chances of winning the speaker’s gavel (and flipping the U.S. Senate.)

“Both parties are underperforming,” Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Imitative at UnidosUS, told me. The difference, she added, is that Hispanic Republicans are quite enthusiastic about their candidates, while a plurality of their Democrat counterparts and other Hispanics who tend to vote for Democrats are rather indifferent about their choices. These voters view their 2026 participation more as showing up for their community than increasing the Democratic Party’s power on Capitol Hill. “Democrats, if they want to be successful, they need to talk to (Hispanic voters), and they need to energize them,” she explained.

Whether Democrats heed these warning signs could decide the balance of power in Washington. The party needs 60%-plus of the Hispanic vote in the midterm elections to win both congressional majorities.

The battle for control of the House is playing out in fewer competitive seats in the aftermath of the Republicans’ redistricting gambit and a Supreme Court decision that overturned a key portion of the Voting Rights Act. And the fight for the Senate majority is occurring in mostly red states. Even in a political environment growing so toxic for Republicans that the Senate race in perennially red Texas is now rated a tossup, Democrats must maximize turnout if they want to flip the seats they need. That’s especially true among Hispanics, who are significant constituencies not just in Texas but North Carolina, Colorado, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

The demographic did pivot toward Trump after frustration with the economy under President Joe Biden. But nearly 17 months after Trump’s return to power, they’re still unhappy — only 15% say they are financially “comfortable,” according to the UnidosUS poll. In fact, Hispanics have swung left in dozens of recent local, state and special congressional elections since the president assumed office again.

To capitalize on the moment, Democrats first have to disabuse themselves of the notion that this is just a return to normal. It is, in fact, a swing. Second, the party must improve its messaging on the economy to Hispanics, who, like most Americans, prioritize this issue above all others.

The mistake Democrats often make is to assume Hispanic voters are looking for government programs to ensure their financial well-being. What most want from Washington, Martinez De Castro explained, are policies that lead to economic opportunities they can seize and sustain for themselves. It’s about pride and contributing to the prosperity of their families, their communities and their country.

“Rightly or wrongly, there’s a sense that Democrats are more about: ‘I’m going to help you because you need help, by putting government as the actor in the story,’” Martinez De Castro said. Instead, Hispanics would like to see proposals that include raising the minimum wage and creating jobs, she said.

To be sure, Trump isn’t doing well with Hispanic voters. And that’s putting it mildly. More than two thirds (67%) disapprove of the president’s job performance, and 25% of the Hispanic voters who helped put him in office would not mark their ballot for him “if they could do it over again,” according to the poll. Even in Florida, typically a hotbed of Hispanic support for Republicans, Trump is underwater, at 51% disapproval. The numbers mirror Americans’ cratering support for the president in general over their disappointment with wage stagnation, the Iran war and immigration enforcement.

But so far, none of this is translating to Democrats running up the score with Hispanic voters. That’s not at all surprising to Daniel Garza, president of LIBRE Initiative, a conservative group that focuses on economic policy and Hispanic outreach. “Many Democrats seem to think a sense of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration is all that is needed for Latinos to swing back to them,” he told me via text. “I just don’t see Democrats changing that script.”

He has a point.

If Democrats are going to maximize the Hispanic vote — and compete for congressional majorities — they’re going to have to offer this bloc, 40% of whom are new to the electorate in the last four years, more than big government and identity politics.

_____

This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

David M. Drucker is a columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of "In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP."

_____

©2026 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com/opinion. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.