Editorial: Will the Senate be up for grabs come November?

Las Vegas Review-Journal, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Apr 23, 2026

Published in Op Eds

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If prediction markets are any indication, Democrats are heavy favorites to take the House in November, with a likelihood approaching 85 percent. That’s no surprise. Republicans have a tiny four-vote majority in the chamber, and the president’s party historically struggles in midterm balloting.

But many Republicans have become increasingly concerned in recent weeks that they could also cede the Senate. “I wouldn’t say I feel warm and fuzzy about things right now,” a Georgia Republican operative told Politico last week. On Kalshi, bettors now favor the Democrats 52-48 when it comes to flipping the upper chamber. Just five months ago, the GOP was a 70% favorite to retain control.

The news should eradicate any complacency within the White House and among Republicans.

The map remains a hurdle for Democrats, despite an edge in fundraising and President Donald Trump’s subpar approval ratings. The GOP is defending 22 seats, the vast majority of which are in safe Republican states. Democratic incumbents, meanwhile, are running in 13 states, including a handful that Trump carried in 2024. In order to pull off a stunner, Democrats must hold their own while picking off four GOP seats. Nevada’s two Democratic senators are not up for re-election this cycle.

“So far, everything is breaking the Democrats’ way,” Nate Cohn of the Times wrote this week. He added, “A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”

The plan entails flipping Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska and maybe even Texas and Iowa. But polls show the GOP leading in most of those states and also having a good chance in Michigan and Georgia against Democratic incumbents. This shows the height of the mountain Democrats must climb.

But the challenge for Republicans is clear: Craft a unifying message that emphasizes the president’s progress on tax and regulatory reform while reminding voters how the last Senate in Democratic hands gave the nation a spending lollapalooza that triggered the worst inflation in four decades, burying the working class.

GOP candidates should also appeal to families by contrasting the party’s support for education policies that empower parents and students with Democratic pandering to a flailing education establishment that for decades has failed to deliver. Double-down on getting voters to the polls.

Seven months is a light year in politics — and that elephant in the room isn’t the Republican mascot. It’s the war in Iran. Where the conflict goes in coming weeks and months will do more to improve or hamper the GOP’s chances of holding the Senate than the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee can ever do.

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