It’s been 11 years since Donald Trump burst onto the national political scene and began his takeover of the Republican Party. But his influence in Minnesota has rarely been tested.

Trump has never weighed in on a competitive primary for statewide office in Minnesota, choosing instead to make an endorsement when the dust had settled.

No longer. Trump waded into a three-way race for Minnesota governor on Wednesday and sided with his longtime friend Mike Lindell, boosting a political ally who has spread Trump’s false theory of a rigged 2020 election just as the president gears up to deliver a primetime address this week on the topic.

The question now for Republicans is how Trump’s pick will shape the governor’s race, and how much it will matter to Minnesota’s primary voters.

Trump’s endorsement usually carries considerable weight. “I absolutely think this is the kind of thing that could put Lindell over the edge,” said Mark York, a Republican and farmer from Lake Wilson who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate this year.

Yet Lindell’s rivals are carrying on, pointing to his mixed record across the country this year and how Minnesota Republicans have a history of following the endorsement of the state party.

Either way, Trump’s endorsement of Lindell is a five-alarm fire for many in the GOP. The MyPillow CEO is widely seen by the party’s establishment as the worst candidate to take on U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Polling suggests the same.

At a time when Republicans feel public outcry against fraud scandals in Minnesota government could turn a blue state red for the first time in 20 years, Lindell threatens to draw public attention to debunked conspiracy theories and the self-inflicted financial problems of his infomercial business.

Some Republican candidates for statewide offices privately fear Lindell will drag them down with him, or harm the GOP’s chances of winning legislative majorities. The endorsement has already intensified a rift between the state party and the possible Republican front-runner for the GOP nomination.

“I think we Republicans are, yet again, risking snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory here,” York said.

Trump’s endorsement is just the latest episode in what has already been an unusually fractured and chaotic governor’s race for Republicans. That mayhem has left an opening for Lindell that otherwise might have closed.

GOP candidates spent months painstakingly courting Republican activists at local events around the state before the party’s May convention in Duluth.

Delegates there endorsed retired health care executive Kendall Qualls. Primary voters have nearly always followed that endorsement, and so most candidates usually pledge to drop out if they’re not endorsed.

This year, it settled nothing. House Speaker Lisa Demuth had promised to abide by the endorsement. But the convention was marred by debate over whether the voting technology had malfunctioned, so Demuth carried on.

Demuth and Qualls were seen as formidable contenders to win the primary.

At the same time, most serious Republican operatives and campaigns have largely ignored Lindell as a sideshow who was buying up his own books with campaign cash for personal profit. Lindell denies this.

Lindell fared by far the worst of any Republican against Klobuchar in last month’s Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll. Voters liked him the least of any Republican candidate.

There was also little evidence Lindell had much traction with Republicans. Fewer than a quarter of GOP delegates at the convention in Duluth — who are among the most conservative of Republican voters — backed Lindell.

Still, the fractured race means the bulk of the GOP electorate is divided between Qualls and Demuth. As a result, polling by KSTP/SurveyUSA before the Trump endorsement suggested a close three-way race, with a large segment of undecided voters.

“The fact that both Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls are in the race means they’re kind of splitting the non-Lindell vote,” York said.

Now, Trump could put Lindell over the top. Trump has swayed primary voters in states like Texas this year, where Republicans backed insurgent firebrand Ken Paxton over longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

York said Republicans in Minnesota largely remain strong Trump supporters, meaning his opinion holds sway. In late June, Lindell released internal polling that showed he would surge from 24.5% to 39.9% in the Minnesota Republican primary if endorsed by Trump, enough to beat Demuth and Qualls.

Trump’s endorsement has not always assured victory.

A Trump-backed candidate lost a primary for governor in Iowa. In the South Carolina governor’s race, Trump endorsed a second candidate after his first choice stalled. Trump also endorsed two governor candidates in Arizona, though one has since dropped out.

A GOP operative close to Demuth’s campaign was hopeful Demuth could win a similar dual endorsement, pointing to dozens of media appearances during the 2024 campaign criticizing Gov. Tim Walz. At the time, Walz was running against Trump as the Democratic vice presidential nominee. As House Speaker, Demuth has closely collaborated with the White House, including on a January event with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Demuth has far more cash on hand compared to Lindell and Qualls, which gives her more of a chance to reach voters and find a path to victory. An affiliated political action committee has also spent more than $1 million on her behalf already.

Still, the Trump endorsement is a blow to Demuth and Qualls. Both publicly and privately worked to appeal to the president, arguing over who was the biggest Trump supporter at the convention.

Many plugged-in Republicans privately hoped Trump might not weigh in at all. Now that he has, some in the GOP are publicly criticizing a candidate they view as a disaster, even as they support Trump.

York said Lindell enforces an erroneous image many metro-area voters have that Republicans are focused on conspiracy theories and not economic issues that can help families. He said Lindell would not only lose a general election, but that he would harm the party “up and down the ballot.” York has not endorsed Demuth or Qualls, but said the party would be better off with just one of them running.

“We’re on the Titanic, we see the iceberg, we need to do something,” he said.

The Minnesota Republican Party also lashed out at Lindell on Wednesday in response to Trump’s endorsement, in an unusual public disagreement with the president that illustrates just how nervous the GOP is about having the MyPillow CEO at the top of the ticket.

Chairman Alex Plechash said Lindell “wants Minnesota Republicans to overlook his serious financial baggage, public records showing tens of thousands of dollars in delinquent property taxes, significant electability concerns, and unanswered questions surrounding his running mate.”

“Minnesota cannot afford to nominate a ticket that gives Democrats an easy target and creates the very real possibility of another DFL trifecta,” he said — describing a scenario where Democrats control the governor’s office and both houses of the Legislature.

Lindell quickly reacted by telling the Minnesota Star Tribune that Plechash shouldn’t be the party chair after his “fiasco” of a convention in Duluth and that Republicans need to try a different type of candidate to break their political losing streak.

Lindell said his company “is still standing and we’re in great shape,” and that he’s electable because he built a successful business while fending off political criticism and government investigation. Lindell said he can raise money nationally with Trump’s endorsement.

“Tomorrow night the president is going to announce and declassify all the evidence I had and that this country has had in our elections; we need to secure our elections,” Lindell said.

York said he thinks Qualls and Demuth still have a chance. Republican delegates still reflect the opinion of the grassroots in the party, and he noted that he sees Qualls signs at parades across the state, not signs of support for Lindell.

Still, he said, Trump’s endorsement “nudges it pretty strongly in (Lindell’s) direction.”

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