NYC congressional primaries head down to the wire amid lower turnout
Published in Political News
NEW YORK — NYC’s unusually contentious Democratic congressional primary campaigns headed down to the wire ahead of election day Tuesday with some analysts suggesting relatively low turnout during early voting could be a red flag for Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s leftist allies in three races.
Candidates in hard-fought races in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx made last-minute campaign appearances and calls Monday to encourage their supporters to get out and vote as in-person election day loomed.
Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. citywide on Tuesday. Results in most races should be known later Tuesday night.
With campaigns and outside super PACs flooding the zone with money, television, radio and social media were awash with ads for candidates vying in deep-blue NY-12, NY-10, NY-13 and NY-7, all of which are considered up for grabs to greater or lesser degrees.
Turnout was relatively low even in the contested districts during early voting, which wrapped up Sunday, dipping by almost 50% compared to last year’s highly contentious primary won by Mamdani over ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and a crowded field of others.
This year’s electorate also so far looks much older, with the median age of voters shifting about 10 years older compared to 2025.
Those twin trends could spell trouble for three candidates endorsed by Mamdani, especially in the NY-07 and NY-13 races.
In NY-07, a very progressive slice of Brooklyn and western Queens, Mamdani pick Assemblywoman Claire Valdez is leading in some polls of an unpredictable open race against Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, a fellow progressive.
Some analysts say higher turnout among older voters who have lived in the district longer could give Reynoso a last-minute boost.
In upper Manhattan’s NY-13, challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier has mounted an unexpectedly strong challenge to longtime incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat after receiving a last minute mayoral endorsement. An older more traditional primary electorate could benefit Espaillat, a five-term incumbent.
“This isn’t the turnout model the left wanted, but it’s not a shock,” said Democratic strategist Chris Sosa. “We’ll see how it all shakes out.”
“We’re headed for two close finishes,” tweeted Michael Lange, a leftist blogger.
The third candidate running with Mamdani’s backing, ex-comptroller Brad Lander, is widely favored to unseat Rep. Dan Goldman in the NY-10 district spanning lower Manhattan and a chunk of Brooklyn. Few strategists see a realistic path to victory for Goldman regardless of turnout.
In all three races, Mamdani rolled the political dice by snubbing powerful establishment Democratic figures and flexing his own electoral muscle.
Mamdani stayed out of the fourth highly contested race in Manhattan’s NY-12 district that is being left vacant by the retirement of Rep. Jerry Nadler.
The two main candidates there are Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, with Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg also in the running.
One thing’s for sure: all the winners on Tuesday night are nearly assured of punching their tickets to Washington, D.C. Democrats who win the party’s nomination are expected to romp to easy victories in November over only token Republican opposition in the deep-blue districts.
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