NEW YORK — Rep. Adriano Espaillat was already facing an unexpectedly tough Democratic primary fight against leftist insurgent Darializa Avila Chevalier in upper Manhattan’s NY-13 district.

Then, Mayor Mamdani lobbed a political grenade into the race late Thursday when he endorsed fellow DSA members Chevalier, instantly turning the June 23 race into a test of Hizzoner’s popularity and boosting the challenger’s chances of pulling off an upset.

Espaillat, 71, a five-term incumbent, has never faced a serious reelection test. He will now be plunged into uncharted electoral waters during a furious 3-1/2 week sprint to primary day as progressive voters seek to flex their muscle in a fast-changing enclave of the city.

Some analysts warn Espaillat could be in for a shock, despite his long history of winning elections in the district.

“It’s hard for me to make the case against her being the favorite,” said Democratic strategist Adam Carlson, ticking off demographic advantages for Chevalier. “She’s running a very hungry, active campaign and he’s taken his foot off the gas.”

Democratic strategist Chris Sosa compared Chevalier’s race to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset of Rep. Joe Crowley in 2018, the last midterm in which President Donald Trump was in the White House.

“We may have an AOC situation on our hands right down to the acronym,” Sosa said. “If DAC wins, that will have huge implications on the perception of incumbency in this city.”

The endorsement of Chevalier is a sign Mamdani is looking to flex his own political muscle by inserting himself into a race on very friendly turf — he won 65% of the district’s vote in the general election — and seeking to show he has what it takes to boost allies into power across the city.

But backing Espaillat’s opponent could come with some risk for Mamdani as he tries to build greater support with Latino voters and elected officials. It marks the second congressional race in which he snubbed a powerful Latino leader, also declining to support Rep. Nydia Velazquez’s choice of Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso to succeed her as she retires from NY-07.

Political commentator Gerson Borrero called the snubs “rookie mistakes” by Mamdani.

“Muchas promises and a few accomplishments,” tweeted Borrero, a former editor-in-chief of El Diario.

But analysts predict the sniping will be quickly forgotten if Chevalier wins, and note that Mamdani waited to pull the trigger until he decided the insurgent had an excellent chance.

“Zohran will risk personal political capital for the possibility of huge reward and movement wins,” Sosa said. “That’s who he promised to be, and his base loves it.”

NY-13 includes Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights and Inwood, along with a slice of the Bronx. The polyglot district comprises very diverse neighborhoods that have changed dramatically in recent years as soaring rents have displaced longtime residents and lured new residents, including many young progressives.

It’s one of the most heavily Democratic and progressive congressional districts in the nation. The Democratic primary winner is a virtual shoo-in to prevail in the November general election over nominal Republican opposition.

Espaillat, who was born in the Dominican Republic, ran as a fiery reformer and a voice for the rising Latino community when he narrowly won a crowded 2016 primary race to replace Rep. Charlie Rangel, who retired amid corruption allegations. He boasts of being the only formerly undocumented immigrant in Congress, is a reliable liberal vote in Congress, chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and has built a powerful local mini-machine including other Latino state and city lawmakers.

His younger proteges even concocted a catchy name for themselves: “Squadriano” (a play on AOC’s “squad” of young progressive women lawmakers).

But Espaillat alienated some by backing ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in last year’s mayoral primary over Mamdani — though he switched sides after Mamdani won the Democratic primary. He also strongly backs Israel and his stances on most issues are generally mainstream Democratic as opposed to more left-wing.

Chevalier, 32, who is also Dominican, boasts of her working-class roots. She’s a community activist, pro-Palestinian protest organizer and a Democratic Socialists of America member like Mamdani.

She makes no effort to hide her aim to be an outspoken anti-establishment voice in Washington, D.C., and has a long history of intemperate social media posts targeting prominent Democrats as well as Republicans.

Chevalier appears to be running a strong campaign. She eked out a win in fundraising for the first quarter over Espaillat, a surprise considering his decade in office.

Espaillat’s campaign was jolted when a flyer supporting his reelection used a photo of a random woman who is not Chevalier. A spokesman disavowed the flyer and countered by accusing Chevalier supporters of defacing Espaillat ads on streets.

Chevalier is just one of several progressive candidates, including some backed by DSA, who are looking to leverage the young mayor’s popularity in deep-blue corners of the city.

Assemblywoman Claire Valdez is considered to be running ahead of Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the NY-07 district where Velazquez is retiring. Former mayoral candidate Brad Lander is favored to unseat Rep. Dan Goldman in NY-10, which spans lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn.

Interestingly, AOC, the city’s other progressive powerhouse, has yet to endorse any of the 2026 crop of progressive insurgents in NYC congressional races.

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