TAMPA, Fla. — More House seats could flip in Florida this election season after a Republican-led redistricting effort upended the congressional map.

Florida is now home to three of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country, according to Cook Political Report, a ratings service. Republicans redrew three previously blue districts to be more red-leaning; they now would have gone for President Donald Trump by an average of about 10 points in 2024.

But in a cycle that’s expected to heavily favor Democrats, Republicans may not flip those seats. Incumbent Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor of Tampa and Jared Moskowitz of Parkland have both said they’re willing to put up a fight under this new map.

Meanwhile, the redistricting effort has shaken up other races in Tampa Bay. It’s possible more candidates will enter, drop out or change races before the qualifying period ends June 12.

Here’s the races we’re watching.

Kathy Castor braces for a fight

Tampa Bay’s lone Democratic representative, 20-year incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor, is in danger.

Until now, Castor had coasted to reelection with Democratic votes from Tampa’s urban core and, for the past few years, from a blue part of St. Petersburg.

Now she’s running in a reshaped District 14 that includes South Tampa, a red-leaning part of the city, and southeast Hillsborough County, including Plant City. Cook Political Report rates the new district “leans Republican,” one of the most competitive designations.

Two new Republican challengers have already injected $3.5 million into the race. State Rep. Kevin Steele of Pasco County loaned his campaign $2.5 million this week and launched a television ad geared toward GOP primary voters. Former state Rep. Mike Beltran, who represented southeast Hillsborough, launched his campaign this week with $1 million of his own money.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placed Castor on its list of “frontline” incumbents, which could help Castor boost her own war chest. She had raised almost $900,000 as of March 31.

What’s going on in Anna Paulina Luna’s race?

Democrats already had slim chances of defeating GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Congressional District 13.

The new map makes unseating the two-term incumbent a slightly heavier lift. The district still is largely in Pinellas County but shifted north to encompass part of coastal Pasco County. It would have gone for Trump by about 13 points — a 1-point increase from the old district.

One Democrat, U.S. Army veteran and attorney Earle Ford, announced he’s leaving the race on Thursday and running for state chief financial officer instead. He had raised more than $500,000, largely from small-dollar donations.

Ford’s exit leaves just one fundraising heavyweight in the Democratic primary: retired Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, who said she’s staying in the race. Her fundraising was neck and neck with Luna’s in the first quarter of 2026.

Seven more Democrats are still in the race as well.

Luna has not made a formal announcement that she’ll continue to run in the new District 13, unlike three other Tampa Bay incumbents who affirmed that they’d run in their redrawn districts. Such announcements are not required to remain in the race. Her office did not respond to multiple requests for comment in time for publication.

Political ratings services still cast the district as “likely Republican,” and it remains on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of targets.

Another Tampa Bay Dem jumps races

Republican Rep. Laurel Lee, who represents District 15, now has the safest seat in Tampa Bay. Her district incorporates East Tampa, a heavily blue patch of the city, but it’s centered in ruby-red Pasco, Citrus and Hernando counties.

One of her Democratic challengers, Florida air surgeon Darren McAuley, announced that he’s jumping over to the new District 12, represented by Republican Gus Bilirakis, that now includes most of West Tampa and western Hillsborough suburbs like Carrollwood, along with much of Pasco County.

Bilirakis said he’ll seek reelection in the redrawn District 12.

Bilirakis’ new seat still would have gone for Trump by around 15 points. But it’s a significant downgrade from his old district, which went for Trump by roughly 35 points.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another political ratings site run out of the University of Virginia, casts Bilirakis’ district as likely Republican.

South Florida shakeups

After redistricting, South Florida is home to two competitive House races in districts 22 and 25. Both are held by Democrats.

But incumbent Democrats in South Florida are jumping races left and right.

District 22 was redrawn to include Parkland and other western suburbs in South Florida. It then stretches across the state to include parts of Naples.

Cook Political Report rates the district as “leans Republican.”

No Democratic incumbents in South Florida have opted to run in that district, leaving the seat open. Rep. Lois Frankel, who currently represents District 22, jumped to 23, where most of her current constituents are grouped. Three Republican challengers filed to run for the seat since its boundaries changed.

Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, the incumbent in District 23, said he’s also following his constituents and running in the more competitive District 25, which covers much of coastal South Florida. Political ratings services consider the race a true toss-up.

Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz represents District 25 now, but she announced Friday that she’ll run for the safely Democratic District 20 South Florida seat vacated by former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned amid a House ethics probe into her finances in April.

The redistricting shuffle is bound to confuse voters. County elections officials could spend $1.6 million in Tampa Bay alone in an effort to inform voters that their congressional districts have changed.

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