Congress might lose more to scandal -- and these 2 are from Florida

Last week, two members of the U.S. House of Representatives resigned on the same day.

Gone were Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican accused of having a coercive sexual relationship with an aide who later killed herself, and Eric Swalwell, whose bid for the Democratic nomination for California governor was derailed after accusations of sexual assault.

Gonzales had resisted calls to resign, but after allegations against Swalwell emerged, the pressure to expel both grew. They belonged to separate parties, so their mutual exit was a wash in that it didn’t affect the GOP’s four-vote majority. Their departures had bipartisan support, particularly among female lawmakers like Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Pinellas County and Democratic Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández of New Mexico.

But the abrupt exits short-circuited talk — at least momentarily — of a broader expulsion vote involving two other members plagued by scandal, both of whom are from Florida.

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Republican Rep. Cory Mills are being investigated by the U.S. House Ethics Committee for serious infractions.

While their departures, together, would leave the Republican majority intact, it’s less clear that their cases will resolve themselves the way they did with Gonzales and Swalwell.

Let’s unpack the politics at play.

Why is Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick facing scrutiny?

Chosen in 2022 in a special election to replace Alcee Hastings, who had died, Cherfilus-McCormick represents District 20, which covers parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties.

She faces charges brought last year by the U.S. Department of Justice that alleges she stole about $5 million in federal disaster funds and used the money to support her successful congressional campaign. She had run for Congress the two previous cycles but had struggled to raise money.

According to a grand jury indictment, a health care company run by Cherfilus-McCormick, 47, and her brother won a federal COVID-19 vaccination contract and received $5 million in overpayment due to a clerical error.

Rather than return the money, Cherfilus-McCormick and her brother routed the overpayment through several accounts to disguise its source, the indictment said. Prosecutors allege that a substantial portion of the misappropriated funds was used as candidate contributions to Cherfilus-McCormick’s congressional campaign.

A criminal trial is set for next year. In the meantime, a House Ethics subcommittee investigation last year found additional misconduct that warranted more charges. In late March, the subcommittee found Cherfilus-McCormick guilty of 25 of 27 counts against her, including taking improper campaign contributions, making false statements in finance reports, commingling of campaign and personal funds, and making errors on financial disclosures.

Cherfilus-McCormick says she’s innocent. One of her Florida colleagues, Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., vowed after that vote that he would move to expel her if the full House Ethics Committee recommends expulsion. Some Democrats have also called for her resignation or expulsion. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has been mostly mum on the subject.

But the day of reckoning for Cherfilus-McCormick is Tuesday, when the full House Ethics Committee will meet to determine what sanctions, if any, she faces.

Those sanctions could include a recommendation to expel her. Such a recommendation would then go up for a vote by the House and require two-thirds approval.

What’s going on with Cory Mills?

Also elected in 2022, Mills represents District 7, which covers all of Seminole County and southern Volusia County in Central Florida.

Allegations against Mills in his House Ethics investigation are multifaceted. Among them: that he omitted or misrepresented required information in his financial disclosure statements, that he misrepresented the source of loans and contributions to his campaign committee, and that he may have entered into federal contracts while a member of Congress.

Last year, the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington, D.C., investigated Mills relating to a report of an assault on a woman. A police report stated that Mills “grabbed (his girlfriend), shoved her, and pushed her out of the door.” The Washington Post reported this weekend that police sought to arrest Mills after the 911 call and obtained bodycam footage that showed Mills pleading with police not to arrest him. Another woman, his former girlfriend, was granted a protective order against Mills later last year, after she testified that he had threatened to release sexually explicit videos of her.

Mills, 45, strongly denies any wrongdoing, but a Republican colleague, Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, moved in April to remove Mills for these assorted allegations, along with accusations that he lied about his military record. A Mother Jones profile earlier this year called Mills the most despised member in Congress while detailing more allegations, including that he hired sex workers while on an ostensible rescue mission in Afghanistan.

Why does any of this matter?

Republicans have a wafer-thin majority in the House of 217-213. Any more cushion they can get will help with votes through the rest of the year.

If Cherfilus-McCormick does leave early, there’s the question of how quickly Gov. Ron DeSantis would move to fill that seat. There are four times as many Democrats as Republicans in the South Florida district, making it safe for Democrats in this year’s midterm elections. A host of Democrats, including the rapper Luther Campbell, have filed to run in the primary. But DeSantis has specifically called out District 20 for its odd shape as something that could be redrawn when state lawmakers meet April 28 to reconsider Florida’s congressional districts.

The Republican voter advantage in the district that Mills now represents is substantial, but not insurmountable in a year when independent voters are skewing Democratic by a 2-1 margin.

Democrats have identified Mills’ district as one of four they think they can flip, partly because of Mills’ vulnerabilities. If he remains the GOP candidate for the general election, Democrats feel confident that they can make Mills’ corruption the defining issue in that race.

If Republicans can get Mills out now, they’ll have time to push a candidate with less baggage. Such a preemptive measure also might contain an infection, so it doesn’t spread to other races. Already, the Mills drama is bleeding into the governor’s Republican primary, where the campaign of former House Speaker Paul Renner is calling out the front-runner, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, for his links to Mills.

“Rep. Mills faces a restraining order, has admitted to serious misconduct, and is under House Ethics investigation for financial issues,” Renner’s campaign tweeted at Donalds last week. “Will you call on Cory Mills to resign, or does accountability only apply when it’s politically convenient?”

A Donalds’ campaign spokesperson said Monday that Donalds supports letting the House Ethics Committee conclude its investigations on Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills and then, based on its recommendations, deciding what to do.

The negatives swirling around Mills are a gift for Democrats. That might explain why Democrats may support, or not actively oppose, the expulsion of Cherfilus-McCormick, but won’t push too hard to remove Mills until the House Ethics Committee completes its investigation.

The committee famously works slowly so if it ends up deciding the fate of Mills, he could remain the GOP candidate through the general election, giving Democrats what they think is a better shot at picking up a seat in Florida.

But that might be unlikely given the revelations in this weekend’s Washington Post about the near-arrest of Mills last year. That could fuel more talk of expelling two lawmakers at the same time, which could lead to exactly what we had last week — dual resignations of a Democrat and a Republican.

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