WASHINGTON — Three months after Inside Elections shifted a dozen House race ratings toward Democrats, nine more are moving the same way as Republicans look to defend their narrow House majority.

The national atmosphere remains tough for the GOP. Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job approval rating and consistent Democratic overperformances in races around the country point to Democrats gaining at least the three seats they need to flip control of the House.

But while an analysis of individual House races shows Republicans have an opportunity to maintain control of the chamber, the continued shift in the makeup of the House battleground suggests that Democratic gains are likely.

With the latest batch of race rating changes, House Republicans are now defending more competitive seats compared with Democrats (33 versus 29). This is potentially similar to other midterms — including 2010, when Republican seats fell off the battleground and vulnerable Democratic seats were added in the final months of the campaign, and 100 Democratic seats were rated as competitive compared with just nine GOP-held seats. Republicans ended up gaining 63 House seats that midterm cycle.

It’s unlikely that the current House battleground would match that size, but several factors could continue to favor Democrats.

Inside Elections is shifting the rating for California’s 25th District (Raul Ruiz, D) and 47th (Dave Min, D) as well as Ohio’s 13th (Emilia Sykes, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, which means they are dropped from the list of races considered competitive, or within reach for Republicans.

On the other side of the ledger, five GOP-held seats are shifting from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, which means they are now considered battleground seats and more legitimate Democratic targets. Those races include Colorado’s 3rd District (Jeff Hurd, R), Florida’s 27th (María Elvira Salazar, R), Montana’s 1st (where Republican Ryan Zinke is not running), North Carolina’s 11th (Chuck Edwards, R) and Texas’ 23rd (where Republican Tony Gonzales dropped out after the primary but before a now-canceled runoff).

There’s not one specific factor that has put all of those races into play. And like my children, they’re each unique in their own way. But when the political environment shifts against the president and his party, it’s hard for the party in power to get things back on track.

Of course, there’s still time for things to change. But it’s OK to acknowledge that the majority of the evidence continues to point to a traditional midterm election that favors the party out of power.

One race, Michigan’s 3rd, is a rare contest in which a Democratic seat was added to the battleground. But Republicans finally unearthed a potentially strong challenger to Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten in TV meteorologist Terri DeBoer. And Democrats haven’t been able to find a strong challenger to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil of Wisconsin’s 1st District, so that race has been dropped from the list of battleground races — at least for now.

More toward the center of the House battleground, Inside Elections has downgraded Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ chances of winning reelection in North Carolina’s 1st District. Even though Democrats are confident in their ability to defeat GOP nominee Laurie Buckout once again, the district was redrawn by Republicans to make Davis’ electoral life more difficult. It now has a Baseline GOP performance of +8. As such, the race shifts from Tilt Republican to Lean Republican.

Republicans can take some solace in the fact that the general election is still more than half a year away. But there isn’t any clear evidence that Trump or the GOP has bottomed out. And the war with Iran has complicated economic gains Republicans were planning to tout on the campaign trail.

Over the next few months, there will be more polling of individual House races, and there’s likely to be more movement and ratings changes in races at the core of the battleground.

Here are the latest House rating changes by Inside Elections:

Moving in Republicans’ favor

—Michigan’s 3rd District (Hillary Scholten, D): from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic

—North Carolina’s 1st (Don Davis, D): from Tilt Republican to Lean Republican

—Wisconsin’s 1st (Bryan Steil, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Moving in Democrats’ favor

—California’s 21st (Jim Costa, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

—California’s 25th (Raul Ruiz, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

—California’s 47th (Dave Min, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

—Colorado’s 3rd (Jeff Hurd, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

—Florida’s 27th (María Elvira Salazar, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

—Montana’s 1st (Open; Ryan Zinke, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

—North Carolina’s 11th (Chuck Edwards, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

—Ohio’s 13th (Emilia Sykes, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

—Texas’ 23rd (Open; Tony Gonzales, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

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