What to know about the too-close-to-call race to replace Mikie Sherrill in Congress

The Democratic primary to replace New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress remained too close too call as of Friday morning, but the early results already signal a major breakthrough for progressives in the state.

Analilia Mejia, a progressive who has worked for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Working Families Party, led former U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski less than 1 percentage point, with more than 91% of votes tabulated in the crowded primary.

Some outlets, including Decision Desk, called the race for Malinowski, who dominated mail ballots, Thursday night before issuing retractions as Mejia gained ground. The Democratic National Committee had even issued a premature congratulations to the former House member before Mejia took the lead.

Sherrill represented North Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, which includes parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic Counties and stepped down after being elected governor. A field of 13 Democrats competed in the special election for the open seat from various factions of the Democratic Party.

Only two broke through as serious contenders, and they represent two sides of the New Jersey Democratic Party: the establishment and the progressives.

Democrats were so invested in the race, turnout exceeded the 2024 primary for the seat, which signals the high level of motivation for Democratic voters going into this year’s midterms.

Sherrill stayed neutral in the race.

Mejia is supported by national progressives like AOC

Mejia, 48, is the daughter of Colombian and Dominican immigrants. She has called to “abolish ICE” and spoke in both English and Spanish at a news conference Friday.

The progressive candidate has most recently worked as the co-executive director of Popular Democracy, a network of organizations across the country that call for “transformational change for Black, brown and low-income communities,” according to its website. She worked as the national political director for Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, the state director of the New Jersey Working Families Party, and as a union organizer before launching her bid for the seat.

Mejia was endorsed by national progressives, including Sanders, I-Vt., U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. She also had the backing of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, whose progressive campaign landed him in second place behind Sherrill in the six-way gubernatorial primary last year.

Mejia leaned into her underdog status Thursday night when addressing supporters, noting the race had been called for her opponent before she took the lead.

“Here’s the bottom line,” she said. “We know that our movement, this party, this moment, calls on every one of us to be big and bold and brave. And that is what we are about.”

She later declared: “I think we’ll listen to some Bad Bunny!”

Malinowski was backed by the local party apparatus

Malinowski, 60, started as a freshman House Democrat alongside Sherrill in 2019 before losing his seat to Republican U.S. Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. in the 2022 election after he faced pushback for undisclosed stock trading and his area was redistricted to be less favorable to Democrats.

His former district is right next to the 11th District and encompasses parts of Union, Somerset, Morris and Sussex Counties, and all of Hunterdon and Warren counties.

He had the endorsement of the Morris County Democratic Committee, which would have had more sway before the state got rid of its county line ballot system last year.

The Essex and Passaic County parties backed other candidates who were far behind Malinowski and Mejia.

DNC Chair Ken Martin said in the premature Thursday night statement that Malinowski has “the experience to serve New Jersey once again.”

AIPAC’s involvement in the race backfired

Malinowski faced attacks from a super PAC funded by American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel national lobbying group, even though the group supported him the past, The New York Times and other outlets reported.

Those attacks likely pulled support away from Malinowski, who is far less critical of Israel than Mejia.

Mejia called AIPAC’s tactics against Malinowski “disgusting” in a news conference on Friday and said it underscores her broader concerns about money in politics.

“Big money can actually silence voters ... In many ways, I’m glad that NJ-11 voters got to see the terrible tactics so that we could reject it in the future,” she said.

The district, which used to be Republican, is now viewed as safely blue

Sherrill flipped the 11th Congressional District blue as a first-time candidate in 2018, defeating Republican Assembly member Jay Webber after the GOP incumbent retired. The incumbent, former U.S. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen had held the seat since 1995. The district went from leaning Republican to leaning Democratic when its lines were redrawn in 2022.

Sherrill won her last general election race for her House seat with 56.5% of the vote in 2024.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as solidly Democratic. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district decisively by nearly 9 points in 2024, but it still swung to the right from Biden’s 2020 victory in the district of almost 17 points, according to Cook data.

Joe Hathaway, the former mayor of Randolph in Morris County, was unopposed in the Republican primary.

Hathaway, 38, said in a video on social media Thursday that the election brings an opportunity for “a new generation of leadership … one focused more on the hard work than the headlines.”

He is a former aide to former Republican Gov. Chris Christie and has worked in various roles in the private sector, and has branded himself as a “workhorse” throughout his campaign.

Hathaway and the winner of the Democratic primary will face off on April 16, less than two months before the regular primary election will be held on June 2 for the midterms.

When will the race be called, and will there be a recount?

It’s unclear when the race will be called by The Associated Press (which The Inquirer relies on for election results), but it may not be this week.

Mail ballots that were postmarked by Election Day on Thursday and received by the county Board of Election by next Wednesday can be counted in New Jersey.

Provisional ballots in the state cannot be officially counted until after the eligible mail ballots are received to ensure the voter has not voted by mail. These ballots are used in specific situations like if a person registered to vote moved within the county without updating their address.

Voters also have until the following Tuesday, Feb. 17, to cure a ballot flagged by election officials. This happens when there is a potential issue with a voter’s signatures, which can happen when someone forgets to sign their ballot or whose signature has changed over time. The voter then has to verify their identity for their ballot to be counted.

As for a recount, New Jersey doesn’t have an automatic recount system so a candidate would have to request one and cover the expenses. The candidate would receive a refund if the result changed.