California Central Valley Democrats and Republicans in close House races skip conventions; here's why

Central Valley Democrats in very close California congressional races won’t be at the party’s national convention next week.

Their GOP counterparts skipped the Republican National Convention last month.

Their elections, in California’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts, are important to whether Democrats or Republicans have the U.S. House of Representative’s majority in 2025. The Democratic National Convention next week could offer a chance for challengers to talk with and hang out with big donors.

“In other words, going to the convention means opportunities for fundraising, which will be very important in these races,” said Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno.

So why skip the DNC and RNC?

National attention and fundraising has already poured into these races. To succeed in November, candidates must get support from swing or unenthusiastic voters in their rural districts — voters who very likely will not be attending, or possibly will be being annoyed at all the partisan rhetoric, at a party convention.

Candidates pitching themselves as moderate tend to do well in California’s San Joaquin Valley, and distancing from national party leaders seen either as too conservative or liberal has been a common strategy.

“I don’t think going or not going matters all that much, and I can see why members in competitive or somewhat competitive districts might believe they are better off campaigning at home instead,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which analyzes election.

Former Assemblymen Adam Gray and Rudy Salas, Democratic challengers in toss-up Central Valley House races, opted to sit out of the DNC. Neither Reps. John Duarte, R-Modesto, nor David Valadao, R-Hanford, attended the RNC last month.

Gray, a Merced Democrat, is in a rematch with Duarte, a farmer and businessman turned freshman congressman in California’s 13th Congressional District. The same goes for Salas, a Bakersfield Democrat, and Valadao in California’s 22nd.

Toss-up House races

Their races — taking place in the agricultural-hub San Joaquin Valley, the lower part of the Central Valley — have garnered a lot of national attention given how close they are projected to be. Nonpartisan analysts say that these races are toss-ups, meaning they could go either way for a Democrat or Republican.

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee, the House’s campaign arms for either party, are invested in these races.

Currently, there are 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies in the House. Two of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.

In 2022, Duarte beat Gray by fewer than 600 votes, the second-closest House race that year.

The 13th district, which includes all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, would have voted for Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points had current legislative maps been in place. It has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Salas came within 3 percentage points of Valadao in 2022. The Republican has survived tough races before: Valadao has been in the House since 2013, but he lost his seat in 2018 before winning it back in 2020.

The 22nd, which has more registered Democrats than Republicans and would have picked Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.

Both the 13th and 22nd, Latino-majority voting districts, tend to have very low turnout, meaning older, white, conservative voters disproportionately weigh in on elections there.

Gray and Salas had each served in the California State Assembly for a decade, but gave up their seats through their failed 2022 congressional bids.

Central Valley fundraising

Gray and Salas have fundraised well against Duarte and Valadao over the last several months, though the Republicans have an edge in overall funds.

Campaign finances are far from the only factor in determining how an election will play out. But cash on hand lets candidates spend more on advertisements, events and other supplies necessary to a campaign. It’s also good to reserve money in case of unexpected issues down the line.

Campaign funds come from a wide range of sources, including those not specified in the candidate’s official report, from individual donors, political action committees, other lawmakers and joint-fundraising groups.

Gray has more than $1.8 million in the bank, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings, which cover through June 30. Duarte reported almost $2.1 million.

Gray raised almost $992,000 from the start of April through June 30. Duarte pulled in almost $463,000 in the same three-month period.

Salas raked in more than $1.3 million from the beginning of April to end of June. Valadao, over $615,000.

Valadao has over $2 million on hand to Salas’ more than $1.7 million.

_____