WASHINGTON — Election analysts moved two of North Carolina’s congressional district races — the 1st and 11th — from leans Republican to toss-up races.

On Thursday, The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics leaned left 13 congressional districts across the country.

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, in the state’s far northeast, has been represented by a Democrat for more than a century. But state lawmakers redrew the district to make it favorable for a Republican to win.

In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, located in the southwest, the lines didn’t change. It should be next to impossible to defeat a Republican incumbent, but a poorly timed scandal and a lack of fundraising by the incumbent proved enough to move the university’s ranking left.

Davis v. Buckhout

Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat from Snow Hill, began representing the 1st Congressional District in 2023 following the retirement of long-term Rep. G.K. Butterfield, a Democrat from Wilson.

And the cause of Butterfield’s retirement is exactly where Davis has ended up: in a redrawn district meant to help Republicans obtain a new seat in Congress.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which makes UVA’s predictions, coupled his analysis of Davis’ district with Rep. Kathy Castor, a Democrat from Florida, saying both incumbents were “significantly hurt by redistricting.” He added that both now represent districts that voted for Trump by 55% in 2024.

“If this were a presidential year or a Republican-leaning midterm, both would be clear underdogs,” Kondik wrote. “However, they each have paths in 2026.”

Kondik said Democrats could win the national House vote by half a dozen points or more and that Davis and Castor might benefit some from their incumbency advantages.

Currently, the U.S. House is made up of 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, with four vacancies caused by three resignations and a death. Those four vacant seats were held by three Democrats and a Republican.

Democrats are hoping to flip both the Republican-led House and Senate in the midterms, which are known to benefit the party who doesn’t have a leader in the White House.

Davis faces off, in November, against Laurie Buckhout, a Republican from Edenton, and Trump’s former assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy. There’s also a Libertarian in the race, Tom Bailey, who Kondik says Democrats “hope will ease Davis’ path to victory,” by taking away votes from Buckhout.

Kondik also recognized that labeling the district a “toss-up” might be generous, but he added that some Republicans also saw his generosity as he expanded the nation’s toss-up districts from 15 to 20.

Edwards vs. Ager

Rep. Chuck Edwards, a Republican from Flat Rock, wasn’t among those Republicans.

Instead, Kondik moved Edwards’ district from leans Republican to a toss-up, like Davis’.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, who works and lives in the 11th District, said the two districts work in tandem.

“If 11 is a toss-up, then 1 is a toss-up,” Cooper said. “11 leans a little bit more Democratic friendly than 1, but they’re very close, and there’s no question that Don Davis has many of the advantages of incumbency, despite that fact that a bunch of his district is new to him.”

That’s not the case, for Edwards, who represents the exact opposite side of the state from Davis.

Edwards has faced multiple negative national headlines, a House ethics complaint and an investigation alleging he “may have created or fostered a hostile work environment and engaged in sexual harassment.” Edwards denies the allegations.

Among the allegations reported by NOTUS and Axios are that Edwards traveled to Las Vegas with a former employee 40 years his junior, sent an employee a three-page letter saying she has written a complex chapter in his heart, purchased a pink and a blue gun for two of his employees, paid someone to serenade an employee at her birthday party and invited one employee to an Adam Sandler comedy show via a puzzle she first had to complete.

Edwards faces off against Democrat Jamie Ager, a local farmer, whose pedigree includes a line of elected officials, including his brother, father and grandfather.

Ager far-outraised Edwards according to the latest Federal Elections Commission reports, with Ager reported raising $1.4 million to Edwards’ $155,000.

“Chuck Edwards has been the recipient of even more bad news cycles,” Cooper said. “Jamie Ager has thus far not had a bad news cycle, and the fundraising numbers for Chuck Edwards were abysmal in the last quarter.”

Kondik called the Edwards fundraising numbers “alarmingly weak.”

“The district backed Trump by a shade under 10 points, so it’s also clearly red-leaning, but, again, the environment could sand down some of that generic Republican lean, and Edwards has some problems,” Kondik said. “So we’re calling this a toss-up too.”

Cooper, who wrote an in-depth analysis of the district for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told McClatchy that the district still has a natural Republican lean, and that no county other than Buncombe, home of Asheville, has voted for a Democratic candidate for president since 2008.

“I think that shift,” Cooper said, “in context with the shift in NC01 and the other 11 districts the Crystal Ball moved towards Democrats may say more about the bigger environment than it does the specifics of those districts.”

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