DENVER — Eileen Laubacher, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, has raised more than 10 times as much money as U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.

And four months out from the November election, Laubacher, a Democrat, held an eye-popping cash advantage over Colorado’s most well-known member of Congress: $3.6 million to $247,000. That’s according to new federal campaign finance reports filed by their campaigns Wednesday night.

But all that money, which accounts for contributions to and expenditures from each’s campaign coffers as of June 30, may add up to a whole lot of nothing in a district as red as the 4th.

Political observers advise against reading too much into Boebert’s fundraising numbers, which are anemic compared to the state’s other Republican incumbents and to her past races. Two years ago at this time, when Boebert, now 39, was running in the 4th District for the first time, she had nearly $530,000 in the bank after fending off several GOP primary challengers.

In 2022, when she was running for a second term in the more competitive 3rd Congressional District on the Western Slope — before she switched to the 4th — Boebert had close to $2.3 million in cash on hand entering July, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University, pointed to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which gives Republicans a massive 9-percentage-point advantage in the 4th District, which covers the state’s Eastern Plains and butts up against the Front Range, taking in Douglas County. Cook rates it solidly Republican this year.

“History shows money alone rarely overcomes a 9-point partisan lean in a midterm or general (election) without a perfect storm, like a national wave, a major scandal or a candidate collapse,” he said. “I’d rate the odds of a flip as quite low — Boebert starts as a strong favorite, barring major shifts.”

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli also cautioned that cash alone may not be able to overcome the reality of the district’s political makeup. Republicans have 100,000-plus more registered voters than Democrats.

“I’m not sure that money is the actual issue in this district,” Ciruli said.

But that doesn’t mean a change at the top can’t happen in Colorado’s sprawling eastern district — because it has. Betsy Markey represented the district for a single term nearly 20 years ago — the only time a Democrat has won the seat in decades.

A ‘lack of enthusiasm’ for Boebert?

The nearly $10.3 million that Laubacher, 57, has reeled in compared to Boebert’s just over $1.1 million this election cycle is a substantial spread.

Trying to divine why that fundraising discrepancy exists is tricky, Saunders said, though Laubacher’s haul has benefited from extensive online fundraising appeals asking for help taking on the conservative lightning rod. All that money will expand the opportunities to get her messages in front of voters, including through ads on TV and social media.

She ended up unopposed in the Democratic primary after Trisha Calvarese — who lost to Boebert by 11.6 percentage points in the 2024 race — dropped her repeat bid in late March. Boebert was unopposed in the June 30 primary.

“It may reflect some national GOP donor hesitation tied to her controversies, but in practice, it hasn’t hurt her electorally here,” Saunders said of Boebert, referring to unflattering headlines the congresswoman has generated over the years. “Lack of enthusiasm is possible among moderates, but the district’s partisan composition limits its impact.”

Boebert’s thinner campaign purse can also be explained in more innocuous ways, he said.

“Incumbents in safe seats often don’t need to max out (with each donor); they can rely on name recognition, partisan advantage in the electorate and party infrastructure,” Saunders said.

A spokesman for Boebert’s campaign didn’t respond Thursday to questions sent by The Denver Post.

In other federal races that could prove more competitive, this week’s FEC filings show differing relative money positions.

Fundraising in the El Paso County-based 5th Congressional District has favored Democrat Jessica Killin, who has collected nearly twice as much money as first-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank in this cycle. The former U.S. Army captain, who won the Democratic primary, had nearly $1.6 million in her coffers as of June 30 compared to Crank’s nearly $1.5 million. While the district has long been a Republican stronghold, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 5th to its “Districts in Play” list of targeted seats in February.

In the 3rd District, Boebert’s successor, Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd, reported nearly $1.8 million in his account entering July compared to Democratic nominee Dwayne Romero’s $84,200 after Romero won a hard-fought primary.

In Colorado’s most competitive congressional district, U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans, a Republican, had more than six times the cash on hand as his Democratic opponent, Manny Rutinel, as of the end of June. Rutinel had just over $601,000 to Evans’ nearly $3.9 million to spend through November in the race for the 8th Congressional District, which includes northern Denver suburbs and Greeley. But Rutinel had to fend off two Democratic opponents in a very expensive primary.

In Colorado’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper was crushing his Republican opponent, state Sen. Mark Baisley, in the fundraising game despite facing his own primary opponent. Colorado’s junior senator had nearly $2.1 million in his bank account on June 30, compared to less than $27,000 for Baisley, who was unopposed in the GOP primary.

In all, Hickenlooper has raised nearly $8.9 million in this election cycle to Baisley’s nearly $105,000. The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “solid Democrat.”

Laubacher’s strategy

In the 4th District, Taylor Gillespie, the campaign manager for Laubacher, said raising money was “only one part of building a winning campaign.”

Laubacher, she said, “has spent her entire career putting her life on the line for our country and is running to put a stop to the self-dealing in Washington by putting in place term limits and age limits, banning insider stock trading by politicians and putting a stop to reckless, out-of-control debt.”

Laubacher can pound themes on the campaign trail that are particularly salient to the largely agricultural district, Ciruli said, like high fuel and fertilizer prices in the midst of the U.S. war with Iran and added costs for farmers due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“You have to convince the farmer in Sterling or in Fort Morgan that they’re not getting enough representation and they need to move to a Democrat,” he said.

Saunders said Laubacher would have to execute a “flawless ground game” and target unaffiliated and “soft GOP voters in suburban growth areas” (like Douglas County), “emphasizing her service, moderation and putting people over politics.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s unpopularity in the country could hurt Republicans on the November ballot. Boebert has created some distance between herself and the president in recent months, criticizing Trump for his veto of a water project that would benefit her district and calling on his administration to release files on sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

But Saunders said Boebert can stray only so far from the White House.

“In a safe district of any partisan flavor, loyalty signals often matter more than policy nuance,” he said. “So, her survival will likely rest on keeping the base fired up without alienating enough suburban and independent voters.”

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