WASHINGTON — Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats.

But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground.

With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats.

President Donald Trump’s job rating is underwater at 39% approve and 58% disapprove, according to Nate Silver’s national average.

Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot 49% to 43%, according to FiftyPlusOne.

And 70% of adults believe the country is off on the wrong track, according to the RealClearPolitics average, at a time when Republicans are in full control of Washington.

There’s been a gradual creep of race rating changes in Democrats’ favor this year, including 16 races in December and another nine in March. Inside Elections recently made rating changes in a dozen more House races, including 11 to a category more favorable to Democrats.

And yet, even though House Democrats need only a net gain of three seats for control, a Democratic majority is not guaranteed.

Some of the recent changes came on the fringes of the House battleground.

Ohio’s 7th District (GOP Rep. Max Miller) entered competitive territory, shifting from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, while Pennsylvania’s 17th (Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio) moved off the battleground, going from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Indiana’s 1st (Democrat Frank J. Mrvan) and Michigan’s 8th (Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet) moved closer to the edge, from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic, while Texas’ 15th (Republican Monica De La Cruz) and North Carolina’s 11th (Chuck Edwards) moved closer to the core, from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

There were also a handful of moves at the center of the battleground.

Ohio’s 1st (Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman) and New Jersey’s 7th (Republican Thomas H. Kean Jr.) moved from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic, while Pennsylvania’s 8th (Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.) and Wisconsin’s 3rd (Republican Derrick Van Orden) shifted from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Iowa’s 3rd (Republican Zach Nunn) moved from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, one step away from a Toss-up.

And yet, even with all of those rating shifts, there’s still a certain symmetry to the race for the House. There are 188 seats rated Solid Republican and 182 seats rated Solid Democratic. Of the 65 seats currently rated as competitive (either Likely, Lean, Tilt or Toss-up), Democrats are defending 32 of them while Republicans are defending 33.

Tallying all the seats not rated a Toss-up even puts Republicans slightly closer to a majority. There are 215 seats rated either Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican compared with 206 seats rated Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Democratic. There are 14 Toss-up races.

In past “wave” elections, the battleground has often been disproportionate with one party clearly on defense. But that hasn’t come to fruition yet for House Democrats this cycle, as Republicans have been helped by a series of developments.

A quartet of races shifted toward the GOP when the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated the new Democratic-drawn, voter-approved map in the commonwealth. And the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais led to rating changes in Alabama’s 2nd (represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures) and Louisiana’s 6th (Democrat Cleo Fields) toward the GOP.

But it’s also important to remember that Democrats don’t need a wave election to win control of the House. Redistricting has made things harder for them, but not impossible.

While it’s possible that Republicans are on the cusp of bucking typical midterm election trends, it’s more likely that this is the calm before the storm. Candidates and both parties will poll extensively over the summer to calibrate their fall messages and campaign strategies.

And that could reveal that the national environment remains problematic for the GOP at the district level and show Democrats better positioned to win House control.

Here’s a summary of the latest rating changes by Inside Elections:

Moving in Republicans’ favor

—California’s 6th District (Kevin Kiley, I)

Moving in Democrats’ favor

—Indiana’s 1st District (Frank J. Mrvan, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

—Iowa’s 3rd District (Zach Nunn, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

—Michigan’s 8th District (Kristen McDonald Rivet, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

—New Jersey’s 7th District (Thomas H. Kean Jr., R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

—North Carolina’s 11th District (Chuck Edwards, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

—Ohio’s 1st District (Greg Landsman, D): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

—Ohio’s 7th District (Max Miller, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

—Pennsylvania’s 8th District (Rob Bresnahan Jr., R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

—Pennsylvania’s 17th District (Chris DeLuzio, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

—Texas’ 15th District (Monica De La Cruz, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

—Wisconsin’s 3rd District (Derrick Van Orden, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

©2026 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.