German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of a major shakeup in two key eastern German state elections in September where the Alternative for Germany leads in the polls, urging the political center to work together to counter the far-right party.

“If we don’t do our job and if we’re not good enough, there will be a big bang in September,” Merz said at a regional party convention of the Christian Democrats in Linstow, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, on Saturday.

The chancellor said he is convinced that the country and his coalition have the strength to carry out sweeping welfare reforms seen as necessary to shore up the economy and beat back the AfD. “We can do this”, Merz said, using a famous quote from former Chancellor Angela Merkel about taking in refugees in 2015.

Merz has been under increasing pressure domestically. His coalition of the Conservatives and the Social Democrats promised to deliver the welfare reforms by the summer, but the process has been weighed down by deep disagreements between the parties and fresh economic damage from the war in Iran.

The AfD is capitalizing on the gloomy mood and is leading in the polls in the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, which will both hold elections in September. Lately polls have shown the AfD is edging closer to an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, which would give it control of a state for the first time.

“There is more at stake than just the future of a government,” Merz said. The question is whether the political center of the country still has “the strength, the will and the determination” to tackle and solve the problems Germany faces, he added.

The numbers show that Merz is one of the most unpopular politicians in Germany. In a recent poll only 16% said they are satisfied with his work as chancellor, while the numbers for his coalition with the Social Democrats are even lower, at 12%. Due to his plummeting popularity Merz recently faced talk about a potential bid to replace him as head of Germany’s government.

Merz received support on Saturday in Linstow from the CDU state party leader. “We must reject these discussions outright,” Daniel Peters said.

In Saxony-Anhalt, there appears to be less enthusiasm for the chancellor. A CDU executive committee meeting was actually scheduled to take place in the state capital, Magdeburg, shortly before the state elections on September 6, to rally support for the party’s state chapter.

However, the meeting was unexpectedly canceled. Officially, this was “to allow for more campaign events during the final push rather than internal meetings.” According to Spiegel magazine, however, the real reason was that local officials there would rather do without support from the unpopular government in Berlin.

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(With assistance from Mark Schroers.)

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