MINNEAPOLIS — Minnesota state Rep. Angie Craig’s run for the U.S. Senate has created a scramble for the state’s most competitive congressional seat.

Democrats Matt Little, a former state legislator and Lakeville mayor, state Sen. Matt Klein and state Rep. Kaela Berg are battling for the 2nd District DFL endorsement Saturday. Regardless if a winner emerges, all three candidates may stay in the race and move to a crowded primary, given their varying positions on their post-convention plans.

Craig was a moderate Democrat during her four terms in Congress, and her departure will provide a window into where the party faithful are heading in what is expected to be a very good year for Democrats: whether to stay with the tried and true formula in Klein, a moderate aligned with Craig’s formula for winning the seat; or take a chance on the more progressive Little or Berg.

“I think they’re looking for structural change and someone to fight for it,” Little said of 2nd District Democratic voters. “Whatever label you want to attach to that.”

DFL delegates tend to skew more progressive and are more energized following Operation Metro Surge. Heading into the convention, Klein said progressive candidates are likely to have an edge Saturday, especially since the convention is taking place months after the federal immigration crackdown, a topic that’s dominated this race.

But Klein still thinks there’s room for a moderate. “I’m a centrist Democrat — proudly so — and I think that’s how you hold this seat,” Klein said.

Whatever they call themselves, the three share many of the same views on the issues. They all support impeaching President Donald Trump if Democrats retake the House. They support some form of universal health care and oppose the war in Iran. And they all have said they would have opposed the Laken Riley Act had they been in Congress, a bill that allows law enforcement to detain and possibly deport undocumented immigrants arrested for nonviolent crimes.

Craig supported the bill in Congress, a position that has become a central line of attack by fellow DFLer Peggy Flanagan in the U.S. Senate primary. Craig recently said she regrets voting for the bill.

Observers of the race think the current political environment puts any of the three candidates in a good position to win, no matter their brand of Democratic politics, given the seat has swung in the party’s favor.

“I think reasonable minds can differ on the definition of a swing seat, but by any definition of a House battleground district, certainly this cycle, (the 2nd District) doesn’t really fall in that conversation anymore,” said Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes U.S. Senate and House races and others.

“It has firmly established itself, I would argue, as a Democratic-leaning district,” Rubashkin added.

Democratic opposition to Operation Metro Surge and the fact that it is a Trump midterm year with his recent approval ratings having sunk will likely factor in.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is expected to be at the top of the ticket as Democrats’ candidate for governor, could also help down-ballot DFLers, especially in a district she won 57% of the vote in 2024 in her Senate run.

In 2024, a fractured 2nd District Republican base prevented the party from coalescing behind Trump and national Republicans’ candidate Joe Teirab, who ultimately lost to Craig. She won by her biggest margin that election.

But this year, 2nd District Republicans have unified behind a single candidate early. State Sen. Eric Pratt won the GOP endorsement last weekend and will not face a primary after Tyler Kistner left the race. Pratt got another boost when he won the backing of Minnesota’s four Republicans in Congress.

This unity is something that helps Pratt because it makes the choice between him and any of the Democrats clearer, said former Minnesota GOP Rep. Vin Weber.

Weber says the current political environment can change between now and November, but so far, it’s looking like it could be an uphill climb for Republicans.

“I think Republicans generally believe the 2nd District is still competitive,” Weber said. “But there’s also the question of the broader environment. Is this going to be a year in which Republicans can win competitive seats, or are they purely on defense? And so far, the broader environment this year looks very bad for Republicans.”

The 2nd District has been a top target for Republicans and Democrats in Washington in recent years, but so far, neither party’s campaign arms have targeted the seat.

The convention, which will be held at Burnsville High School on Saturday morning, comes weeks after recent actions by Klein and Little have been criticized.

Klein was caught betting on the prediction market platform Kalshi on the outcome of his election. And Little was accused by local activists in an Intercept story of using his participation in ICE protests for his own political advantage and putting a fellow activist in danger.

Klein apologized for placing the bet on Kalshi, which Little and Berg condemned. Little maintains he participated in ICE protests because he disagreed with the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota and thinks the story was driven by his political opponents ahead of the convention.

Whether the stories will have an impact on the race remains to be seen. Little claims he still has the majority of delegates.

But Berg says she‘s well-positioned to win the party’s backing.

“It can be easy as a candidate to come up with really emotional taglines and tell good stories, but people want to know that you’re real,” Berg said.

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