DETROIT — Democrat Chedrick Greene had a slight lead over Republican Jason Tunney in initial results Tuesday night in a pivotal special election in Michigan's 35th Senate District.

As of 9 p.m. EDT, Greene, a Saginaw firefighter, had about 52% of the initial vote, while Tunney, a businessman and lawyer from Saginaw, had about 47%. The Libertarian candidate, Ali Sledz of Midland, had about 2% of the votes cast.

However, those numbers represented only a fraction of the total vote that's expected out of Bay, Midland and Saginaw counties. And they will change.

The race to fill a vacant Senate seat will provide early insights into where voters in one key area of Michigan stand 26 weeks before the Nov. 3 general election, in which the state will choose a new governor and a new U.S. senator.

The balance of power in the Senate is also on the line.

Currently, Democrats hold a 19-18 majority in the Michigan Senate. The 35th District seat has been vacant since former state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Bay City, was sworn in as a member of the U.S. House on Jan. 3, 2025.

In August — after months of criticism about leaving the seat empty — Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called the special primary election for Feb. 3 and the special general election for Tuesday. The winner will serve the final months of McDonald Rivet's four-year term and run as the incumbent in the regular August primary election.

If Republicans are able to flip the seat, the partisan breakdown in the Senate would be 19-19. Democrats would maintain leadership of the Senate, as Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II, a Democrat, would have the tie-breaking vote if there's a 19-19 tally. However, Republicans would effectively have veto power by being able to withhold a vote to prevent a tie and Gilchrist's ability to weigh in.

Yet, Greene is viewed by many as the favorite on Tuesday, partially because of a string of victories Democrats have had in special elections in other states since Trump's election in November 2024. McDonald Rivet, a former Bay City commissioner, won the seat in 2022 by 6 percentage points over Republican former state Rep. Annette Glenn, 53%-47%.

Last week, Sen. Darrin Camilleri, D-Trenton, chairman of Senate Democrats' campaign team, predicted Greene would win by "a big margin."

On the other hand, in February, the Michigan Republican Party's chairman, Jim Runestad, referred to the 35th District as a "50-50 seat," meaning the election should be close.

"It will be a real bellwether," Runestad told fellow Republicans at an event, according to a recording provided to The Detroit News. "If we win the seat ... it's going to be looking good all the way down.

"It will depress the Democrats. It will excite the Republicans."

On the campaign trail, Tunney has emphasized Whitmer's delay in calling the special election and focused on public safety, education policies and lowering taxes. People aren't happy and want a better government, Tunney said on Friday.

"We are headed in the wrong direction," Tunney said of the state.

On Greene's campaign website, he's vowed to "fight for every policy and dollar that helps hardworking men and women build better lives in our Great Lakes Bay Region."

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