U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz is preparing to run for reelection in a new congressional district that runs along the coast in South Florida — even though it was crafted by Republicans to thwart his return to Congress.

If the courts allow the Republican redistricting plan to go into effect, a Moskowitz spokesperson said the Democratic congressman “intends to run where the majority of his constituents reside, which under the new configuration would be Congressional District 25.”

The new 25th Congressional District, which takes parts of eastern Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, has a Republican tilt. President Donald Trump won the territory in 2024. And Republican candidates have rushed to stake their claims in the new district.

But an outside analysis of the district suggests the 25th District won’t be a cakewalk for the winner of the Aug. 18 Republican primary. It was rated as a “toss up” this week by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

And much of the territory in the new district comes from communities that Moskowitz has represented since he was first elected to Congress in 2022.

Big picture

The state’s new congressional districts were crafted by Gov. Ron DeSantis after President Donald Trump demanded states change their maps to get more Republicans and fewer Democrats elected.

The map, passed April 29 by the Republican-controlled state Legislature and signed into law Monday by DeSantis, scrambles districts in South Florida, especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Instead of five Democratic districts in South Florida, the new map has three districts that are likely to elect Democrats in November.

Changes made by the Republican map include placing Moskowitz’ Parkland home and the Weston home of U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the same congressional district — and adding Republican territory in an area that stretches west to Marco Island and the Gulf of Mexico.

The overall plan creates 24 Republican-leaning Florida districts and four Democratic districts, down from the current 20-8 split.

The unusual mid-decade redistricting is highly controversial, and several lawsuits have been filed since its enactment on Monday to prevent it from going into effect. The Fair Districts Amendments added to the Florida Constitution by voters in 2010 prohibit partisan gerrymandering, but DeSantis wants all the fair district provisions overturned. The governor’s general counsel outlined that argument when he sent the DeSantis map plan to the Legislature on April 27.

“Congressman Moskowitz strongly supports the Fair Districts provisions in the Florida Constitution and believes the maps approved by the Legislature and Governor violate those standards,” the spokesperson said via text. “If the courts strike them down, he will run in the district he currently represents.”

In his first analysis of the new districts, The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, one of the nation’s foremost experts on congressional districts, wrote that the plan “seriously endangers” Moskowitz, Wasserman Schultz, and U.S. Reps. Kathy Castor from Tampa Bay and Darren Soto from Central Florida.

Wasserman Schultz said on Friday she plans to run for reelection, but she has not said what district she’ll be running in.

25th District

The new map created a new 25th Congressional District by stringing together coastal communities from Delray Beach south to Miami Beach. Detailed statistical tables posted by the Florida Senate’s professional staff show that the mathematical formulas used by redistricting experts and recognized by courts indicate it is the least compact congressional district in the state.

As soon as the Legislature passed the map, and before DeSantis signed it into law, several Republicans who had already been running for Congress, announced they would run in the new 25th District.

They include the three leading candidates who had announced earlier they were running for the Republican nomination for Congress in the former 23rd District, which Moskowitz currently represents.

Republicans who say they’re in are Joe Kaufman, the party’s unsuccessful 2024 nominee in the 23rd District, former state Rep. George Moraitis of Fort Lauderdale and former Mayor Scott Singer of Boca Raton.

Singer officially entered the race in December, before the other two, and had a strong fundraising quarter in the first three months of the year. His Federal Election Commission filing showed $1.2 million in his campaign account on March 31, a figure bolstered by $424,000 of his own money he lent to his campaign.

Moraitis had $483,925 in cash. He also had $111,100 in debt, which is money he lent to his campaign.

Kaufman had $470,261 in his campaign account and reported debts of $89,863.

Democrat Moskowitz — a former state representative, Parkland city commissioner, Broward County commissioner and state emergency management director — reported $1.2 million in cash, and had $40,700 in debt from a loan he made to his first campaign in 2022.

Political winds

Voters in the territory that makes up the new 25th District favored President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

Data analyzed by the Crystal Ball and Florida Democratic data analyst Matthew Isbell show that Trump won the newly crafted 25th District by slightly more than 9 percentage points in 2024, with 54% for Trump and 45% for Harris.

But it voted 52% to 47% for Democrat Joe Biden over Trump in 2020.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics, said Moskowitz would be a strong candidate for the Democrats.

“I do think Moskowitz in particular would make a lot of sense for FL-25, and it’s probably the most purely competitive seat among those that were changed. The Trump +9 topline very likely overstates how Republican it will be in 2026,” Kondik said via email.

In his initial analysis of the redistricting, Isbell wrote on Substack that the “strongest chance for Democrats to hold a gerrymandered seat is definitely the 25th. This district voted for Trump by 9% but also backed Biden by 5% in 2020.”

Isbell said it is “almost surely the most heavily Jewish district in the state,” and he argued that Moskowitz “can likely win back over many of the Jewish voters who swung to the right in the 2024 elections.”

Moskowitz, who is Jewish, is a champion of Israel. Kaufman and Singer are also Jewish.

As the candidates refocus, they’re highlighting any potential advantages, such as Moskowitz already representing much of the new 25th District.

Singer’s campaign has tweaked the way it describes him.

When he initially announced his candidacy for the old 23rd District in December, the campaign described him as “Born in South Florida and raised in Fort Lauderdale.”

On Tuesday, when Singer announced an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Miami-Dade County Republican, the campaign said, “Scott was born in Miami Beach, raised in Fort Lauderdale, and currently resides in Boca Raton.”

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