President Donald Trump’s disastrous war on Iran is weakening the United States, while presenting America’s principal adversaries, China and Russia, with a strategic opportunity to expand their global influence.

The war in Iran is already diverting U.S. attention and resources from Ukraine and East Asia at an alarming level, giving China and Russia a freer hand to pursue their anti-America agendas.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Trump administration spent $16.5 billion on the war in its first 12 days. The Center for American Progress estimates that costs increase by more than $1 billion daily.

As part of the massive buildup of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, Trump deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, one of five currently operational, from the South China Sea, where it had been deterring Chinese threats, to the Arabian Sea to support Operation Epic Fury. Our largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, is now undergoing maintenance in Greece after it was ordered to the Middle East despite having exceeded its service hours, potentially leaving it out of commission longer than would normally be the case.

Even more alarming, the deployment of additional U.S. missile-defense assets and the transfer of scarce Patriot batteries and interceptors to the Middle East risk exposing U.S. forces and allies to more advanced threats from China and Russia.

At least one, and perhaps as many as three, of eight Terminal High Altitude Area Defense radars — our most advanced anti-ballistic missile defense system — was destroyed by Iranian attacks. U.S. Gulf partners are now requesting more interceptors, the missiles used to destroy incoming projectiles, in response to the Iranian onslaught, and Israel is reportedly conserving its own interceptor stocks to slow the depletion rate.

With slow production timelines, the U.S. will have fewer systems to protect troops and civilians from aerial attacks, while Ukraine and Taiwan will find it even harder to maintain adequate stocks to defend against Russia and China, respectively. The longer the war in Iran continues, the more vulnerable it will leave the U.S. and our allies.

Given the substantial toll on the U.S. military, this war could only be justified from a great-power competition perspective if the defeat of Iran would constitute an enormous loss for Russia and China. However, for all the cooperation among the three countries, Iran is ultimately expendable to Beijing and Moscow. China and Russia’s relationships with Iran are a “nice-to-have,” not a necessity. For Russian leader Vladimir Putin, he has already got what he wanted from Iran: advanced drone technology that Russia is now mass-producing and selling back to Tehran.

Yes, China’s ability to purchase discounted oil from Iran is beneficial to the Chinese economy, but Beijing is better positioned than most countries to absorb energy shocks due to its thorough planning — China has 1.4 billion barrels of oil stockpiled, which is sufficient for the next six months — and extensive efforts to diversify its energy portfolio to include renewables.

Ironically, Russia and China are among the beneficiaries of the sharp spike in oil and gas prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil to combat rising energy prices for the American consumer has generated a windfall for oil-producing Russia and mitigated risk for China in procuring Iranian oil.

Even under a best-case scenario in which the U.S. ousts the Iranian regime in favor of a more cooperative government, this would not be a catastrophic blow to either China or Russia. In the far more likely scenario that the Islamic Republic survives, the regime’s survival would be interpreted as a victory not just for the Islamic Republic but also for China and Russia in return for what has been a minimal investment on their part.

Put simply, the war in Iran is a lose-lose proposition for the U.S. and the Trump administration.

Once again, Russia and China are watching with satisfaction as the U.S. pursues another foolhardy war in the Middle East. Every time the U.S. allows itself to become bogged down militarily in the Middle East by anything less than an imminent threat is an opportunity for our adversaries to remake their neighborhoods and eventually the world in their own image. The U.S. can ultimately prevail, but only if our government stops shooting itself in the foot.

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ABOUT THE WRITER

Andrew Miller is a senior fellow focused on the Middle East in the National Security and International Policy Department at the Center for American Progress. He wrote this for InsideSources.com.

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