Orban's support crumbles weeks ahead of Hungarian elections

Andras Gergely, Bloomberg News on Feb 25, 2026

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s support crumbled less than seven weeks before a parliamentary election, a poll showed, raising the prospect of a landslide victory for an opposition that’s pledged to reverse the country’s slide toward authoritarianism.

The opposition Tisza party of former ruling elite insider Peter Magyar widened its lead to 20 percentage points among decided voters, up from 12 points in mid-January, according to a Median poll published by HVG news website on Wednesday. Tisza leads Orban’s Fidesz 55% to 35% among those who say they’re certain to vote on April 12.

The gap, the largest measured thus far among independent pollsters, would put Tisza on track for a supermajority in parliament, Magyar said in a Facebook post. That would allow the opposition party greater latitude to unpick Orban’s self-styled illiberal system, which has triggered the freezing of more than $20 billion in European Union funds for Hungary over rule-of-law and graft concerns.

“Tisza has the momentum,” said Orsolya Raczova, an analyst at Eurasia risk consultancy, while cautioning that Fidesz couldn’t be counted out just yet after 16 years in power.

The forint gained 0.6% against the euro after the poll was published, outperforming eastern European peers. The currency traded close to the strongest level in two years, boosted by bets that a Magyar victory would unlock frozen funds and start the process toward the adoption of the euro.

The poll underscored the waning effect of Orban’s anti-Ukraine rhetoric, which he’s made the centerpiece of his campaign. The Kremlin’s most vocal supporter in Europe, Orban has cast Magyar as a stooge of the E.U. and called Ukraine the “enemy,” alleging that Hungarian soldiers would be sent to die there if Tisza were elected.

“If we want to stay out of the war, if security is important, then we need a national government,” Orban said in a Facebook video on Wednesday, referring to his party. “If we want change and to enter the war, then vote Tisza.”

Magyar has rejected the allegations as baseless, vowing instead to return Hungary into the European fold and to diversify energy procurements away from Russia. He proposes a clampdown on corruption that’s siphoned money away from basic services including healthcare and education.

The widening lead for Tisza suggests that on top of lackluster economic growth and a cost of living crisis, which have driven support toward it since Magyar set up the party just two years ago, Hungarian voters are more concerned about recent scandals.

Almost three-quarters of Hungarians said they believed Orban’s government knew or probably knew about hazardous levels of pollution at Samsung SDI’s battery plant north of Budapest for years, according to the Median poll. Local news website Telex reported earlier this month that the Cabinet had discussed the issue after receiving a national security report but didn’t act to close the plant.

Orban had championed battery plants, making Hungary one of the largest producers for electric vehicles in a bid to buoy the economy that’s been in and out of recession since the pandemic. So far, the sector has been a drag on growth while triggering grassroots opposition due to the plants’ perceived threat to the environment.

Median’s poll result suggested a wider lead than others by independent pollsters, some of which have seen a single-digit lead for Tisza. Government-affiliated pollsters consistently project a Fidesz win.

Tisza supporters are seen as having a higher propensity to vote, boosting its numbers among decided voters compared with the entire population, according to the HVG report. The opposition party also appears to have a better shot at attracting undecided voters than Fidesz, Eurasia’s Raczova said.

Apart from Fidesz and Tisza, the far-right Mi Hazank, seen as a potential ally of Orban’s party, is also projected to clear the threshold for parliament, Median said.The survey was conducted Feb. 18-23 among 1,000 people. The margin of error is 3.5 points.