With Harris in race, poll shows closer contest in Florida. Trump now leads by 3 points

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Vice President Kamala Harris has erased half of former President Donald Trump’s lead in Florida, a statewide poll released Wednesday found.

The Florida Atlantic University poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 47% among likely voters in the state. Just 2% said they were undecided and 1% said they’d vote for another candidate.

The 3-point Trump advantage is half the lead he had in June, the last time FAU polled in the state. Trump had a 6-point advantage among likely voters, 49% to 43%, when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate two months ago.

The results of the Florida survey released Wednesday, which are similar to what’s been showing up in other national and state specific polls, demonstrate how much the trajectory of the presidential race has been upended since July 21, when Biden ended his campaign for reelection.

“This is consistent with the pattern that we’ve been seeing since Vice President Harris came into the race, that she’s consolidated a lot of the traditional Democratic groups and they’ve turned this into a very competitive race,” Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist, said in a phone interview.

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

Another FAU political scientist, Dukhong Kim said in a statement that the results show that “Harris restores the traditional base of the Democratic Party, which includes women, minorities, younger voters, and Democratic Party identifiers.” Trump, he said, maintains his own established base.”

The return of the Democratic base makes the contest more competitive, Wagner said, even though the state has been trending more Republican.

When a larger sample of “all voters” as opposed to “likely voters” is considered, there’s also a 3-point difference. Among all Florida voters, the poll found Trump 49% and Harris 46%, with 2% preferring another candidate and 3% undecided.

Kennedy

The overall parameters of the Florida contest change slightly when factoring in the third-party candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the anti-vaccine activist and son of the assassinated U.S. senator.

When he’s in the mix, Trump has 47% of likely voters, Harris has 45% and Kennedy has 5%.

“It’s a tighter race with RFK Jr.,” Wagner said. “RFK Jr. at least for now seems to be hurting former President Trump.”

The FAU results are in line with a Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN-Ch. 7 poll of likely Florida voters released Tuesday. Trump had 47%, Harris had 42% and Kennedy had 5%. The Suffolk survey was conducted via phone from Aug. 7 to Aug. 11.

In FAU’s previous Florida poll in June, a three-way race found Trump had 45% of likely voters to 40% for Biden and 8% for Kennedy.

Gender, age

There’s a sizable gender gap among likely voters, with women much more likely to prefer Harris and men much more likely to prefer Trump.

Women: Harris had support of 53% of women, 10 percentage points higher than Trump’s support among women.

Men: Trump had the support of 56% of men, 16 percentage points higher than Harris’ support among men.

Younger: Among voters under age 50, Harris led Trump 50% to 44%.

Older: Among voters 50 and older, Trump led Harris 53% to 44%.

Partisan divide

More than nine in 10 Democrats and Republicans supported their party’s nominee, with 94% of Democrats for Harris and 93% of Republicans for Trump.

Independents were closely divided, but slightly favored Harris, 48% to 43%.

Another illustration of the depth of the partisan divide was shown in voters’ responses to the selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as the Democratic nominee for vice president.

Among all voters, the choice had approval of 44% and disapproval of 33%, with the rest neither approving nor disapproving.

But the breakdowns by party showed deep division. Among Democrats, 70% strongly approved of the choice and 1% strongly disapproved. Among Republicans 43% strongly disapproved and 8% strongly approved.

Independents were more evenly split, with 21% strongly approving and 16% strongly disapproving.

Wagner said the Walz results “illustrate how much of what we see and perceive today is just through a partisan lens. So many people have formed an opinion on someone who was largely unknown about a week ago.”

Senate race

The poll found a close race between U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and his likely challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

(Mucarsel-Powell, who has the support of virtually the entire Democratic Party establishment, is almost certain to emerge as the winner of the Aug. 20 party primary.)

In a matchup between the two, Scott has 47% of likely voters to 43% for Mucarsel-Powell. Another 6% said they were undecided and 3% said they supported another candidate.

The June FAU poll had Scott at 45% to Mucarsel-Powell’s 43%.

The latest Senate numbers showed predictable patterns: Mucarsel-Powell had more support among younger voters and Scott had more support among older voters. The Democrat had more support among women and Scott had more support among men.

Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly (88% for each party) supported their party’s candidate. Among independents there was a tie at 41%.

“Scott is winning, but it’s within range that a surge of Democratic voters could make that a nail biter,” Wagner said.

Ultimately, Wagner said, the results in the presidential and Senate races will depend on which side turns out its voters.

“Because of the way that the state has trended, if both bases come out, then Republicans are likely going to be good, and I think that’s what you see in our numbers. It’s tighter, but it is still a Republican-leaning state. That would be good for Senator Scott and former President Trump.”

Florida in play?

Political analysts have seen Trump as the overwhelming favorite to win Florida’s 30 electoral votes, more than 10% of the 270 needed to win the presidency. In 2020, Trump won Florida by 3.3 percentage points.

The poll, which is a snapshot taken early in the Harris candidacy, doesn’t mean Florida is in play.

“It’s possible if the race continues the trajectory it’s on. However, it’s still a bit early to make the determination, and we’ll have to see how the race progresses. If in the next few weeks there are more surveys that show Florida is tight, then it’s possible,” Wagner said.

Still, he said, the poll results are “a warning sign for the Trump campaign.”

Harris, now the Democratic nominee, has enjoyed a bonanza of publicity, and drawn enormous crowds at rallies in critical battleground states. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, hasn’t yet implemented a strategy to counter the changed political environment.

Trump has spent lots of time at his Mar-a-Lago club and home in Palm Beach and hasn’t been doing many big, in-person rallies recently in battleground states. He held a rally in overwhelmingly Republican Montana on Friday, and is scheduled to speak about the economy Wednesday in North Carolina and headline a rally in battleground Pennsylvania on Saturday.

“It’s been a positive couple of weeks for the Democratic ticket. That could be a high water mark or this could be a trend. It’s hard to know in the moment,” Wagner said. “What really happened here is Harris has consolidated and brought a wavering Democratic coalition back, which gets you to where we’ve been for a while, which is an evenly divided country.”

Democrats had 558,272 more registered voters than the Republicans immediately after the 2012 election, when then-President Barack Obama won the state on his way to winning a second term and then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla, won reelection.

The official state tally of registered voters shows that as of July 22, there were 994,847 more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida. (Examining totals from each of the state’s county supervisor of elections, the Fresh Take Florida news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications estimated that the Republican advantage hit 1 million on Sunday.)

Even if Harris doesn’t win the state, a better than expected performance, propelled by voter enthusiasm for the new Democratic ticket, could help her party by getting more voters to the polls who might then vote for more Democratic candidates for lower level offices.

Fine print

The poll of 1,055 Florida registered voters was conducted Aug. 10 and 11 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

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