Florida poll finds abortion, marijuana amendments falling short of passage

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Majorities of Florida voters support referendums to restore abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana — but not necessarily enough to win passage of the proposals.

A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday found both falling short of the 60% required for passage. A Suffolk University poll also found the abortion amendment short of hitting the threshold, and the marijuana question with slightly more than it needs.

Abortion: FAU found 56% of voters surveyed support and 21% oppose Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution. The Suffolk/USA TODAY/WSVN poll reported 58% support and 35% opposed.

Marijuana: FAU found 56% support and 29% oppose Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for people age 21 and older. Suffolk reported 63% in favor and 33% opposed.

There are still more than enough voters who said they didn’t know — 23% on the abortion question and 15% on the marijuana question in the Florida Atlantic University poll — that passage is possible. Voters will be bombarded with extensive pro and con campaigns on both questions through the fall.

Conflicting polls

So how is it that two Florida polls released on the same day appear contradictory?

(A third Florida poll, released 16 days ago, had different results as well. A University of North Florida poll found greater support (69% to 23%) for the abortion rights amendment and for the marijuana referendum (64% to 31%).

It involves the nature of polling.

People who produce high-quality public opinion polls always point out that their surveys are snapshots of what people say at the time they’re asked. The timing of when polls are being taken — they describe it as being “in the field” — can make a difference.

Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab: 1,055 Florida registered voters, was conducted Aug. 10 and 11.

Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN: 500 likely Florida general election voters, was conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 11.

University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab: 774 registered voters, from July 24 to July 27.

In a statement about FAU’s results, political scientist Luzmarina Garcia noted the difference since its last poll on the amendments in the spring. “These results reflect a growing awareness of the constitutional amendments. In April, FAU polled on both initiatives and at that time these measures had 49% approval, which shows a gain of 7 (percentage points) over the last four months.”

The methods pollsters use can make a difference in the nature of the sample.

Pollsters use a range of techniques, some involving live callers to phone lines, others online surveys, others automated calls to phone lines and others use an online component. Sometimes they use a combination of methods to try to reach people, especially younger voters, who may be less inclined to answer their phones.

FAU’s survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters.

Suffolk’s survey used live telephone interviews.

UNF’s survey used an online panel, in which voters were contacted by text message and asked to complete the survey, and from live callers.

Pollsters also make adjustments to weight the samples. If, for example, the survey doesn’t have enough people of a certain demographic group to reflect the total population, they’ll make a statistical adjustment so the total sample more accurately represents the entire population.

And polling isn’t precise. The margin of error indicates the range in which pollsters expect the results to be accurate most of the time.

Candidate A has 54% and Candidate B has 46% and the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, A and B could be tied at 50% each. Or, it could be 58-42.

The FAU poll has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Suffolk said its margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

UNF reported a margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The margin of error refers to the full poll. However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Abortion

The Florida Atlantic University poll found the abortion rights amendment is supported by a majority of every group surveyed — except Republicans.

Republicans were evenly divided, with 35% supporting and 35% opposing the amendment.

Democrats, with 80% in support and 8% opposed, favor the amendment more than any other group.

Independents are in favor, 59% to 15%.

Democrats were far more likely to have made up their minds. Just 12% of Democrats said they didn’t know how they would vote, compared to 27% of independents and 30% of Republicans.

Women were more likely than men to support the abortion rights amendment.

Women support it 59% to 19%, a 40-percentage point advantage.

Men support it 54% to 24%, a 30-point advantage.

And voters under age 50 were more likely to support the proposed amendment (62%) than voters 50 and older (52%.)

Marijuana

The FAU survey shows a big age divide on the referendum that would allow recreational use of marijuana under state law by adults.

Voters younger than age 50 favor it, 69% to 20% — a difference of 49 percentage points, FAU reported.

Voters 50 and older support it more narrowly, 47% to 36%, a difference of 11 points.

There’s no difference based on gender, with 56% of men and 56% of women supporting legalization.

There is, however, a significant partisan divide.

Democrats favor the marijuana amendment 74% to 15%.

Independents favor it 63% to 22%.

Republican support is much lower at 37%, with 46% opposed.

“If they’re going to hit that 60%, the supporters of the amendment are probably going to have to reach a few more Republicans or have a particularly Democratic-leaning electorate, which sees a challenge in a presidential election year,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

_____