Shortly after President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on a slew of Canadian imports, aiming to cripple its economy unless it bends to his will, Canada took more careful aim when returning fire earlier this month.

To a large extent, it aimed at the ballot box.

Wisconsin is expected to be a key swing state in the upcoming midterm elections on Nov. 3, so it’s no wonder Canada targeted Harley-Davidson motorcycles and dairy products like American cheese.

North Carolina, another swing state, with an open Senate seat in play, now faces a Canadian tariff affecting its big furniture industry.

Kentucky is not only dealing with trade conflict over its famous bourbon, but also a new Canadian tariff on washer-dryers, presumably a shot at the giant General Electric appliance plant in Louisville. Even in this solidly red state, Kentucky Democrats are fielding competitive candidates for the 2027 governor’s race. They were just gifted another talking point.

“We are being wise and strategic,” Melanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, explained in recent public remarks. “We are picking products that will target states.”

You might think Illinois, reliably blue and friendly to Canada, would be off the hit list. Unfortunately, like an innocent bystander caught in a crossfire, the Land of Lincoln is getting hit as well.

Canada is Illinois’ largest foreign trade partner, and a key participant in a U.S. auto industry that is critical to prosperity across the Midwest. At a time when American automakers are losing global market share, the latest U.S. and Canadian tariffs are clobbering steel and aluminum vital for auto production. Agriculture is being disrupted, too. Canada is slapping hefty counter-tariffs on farm machinery, such as combine parts, mowing equipment and livestock trailers.

One obvious target there is Iowa, a state Trump won by double-digit percentage points just two years ago that nevertheless has morphed into a Midwest midterm battleground.

Unfortunately for Illinois, the borders tend to blur.

Deere, for example, is based in the Quad Cities, which straddle both states. As of this summer, the farm-machinery giant was expecting to book $1.1 billion in direct tariff expenses for its current fiscal year. That amount, already punishing, could go higher.

In fact, this trade battle easily could get worse for Illinois.

The state relies on imports of Canadian crude oil to keep several large refineries going. Oil and gas haven’t yet been targeted by either side, but of course that could change as relations continue to deteriorate.

Canada also has held off for now on tariffs against ethanol motor fuel made from corn. Iowa is the No.1 ethanol producer, Nebraska No. 2 and guess which state clocks in at No. 3? Illinois has nowhere to hide if the Canadians escalate.

It’s wise not to overreact to the latest tit-for-tat measures, which hopefully won’t last long, but it’s also important to recognize that some losses will indeed be permanent. The Chinese responded to trade attacks during Trump’s first term by investing a fortune in Brazilian soybean production, replacing Illinois farmers.

America’s role as the global leader of free trade has of course been undermined by Trump in numerous ways.

Indeed, the president’s ill-considered attack on open markets has encouraged other countries to double down on free trade with each other. Canada is working to expand its trade relations with China, India and others, while taking the first steps toward joining the European Union as an “associate” member, a vague new designation with details still to be worked out, if they prove to be workable at all.

Canada can’t afford to give up entirely on the U.S., of course. Industry Minister Joly met with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker earlier this month, saying they discussed how to “stand together to protect jobs and reduce the costs on people.” That’s not only a winning economic strategy, but a political winner as well.

Almost two-thirds of Americans say they oppose the trade wars, according to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll. Rising prices are a big reason for the widespread animus, and many Republican voters are rightly skeptical of the party’s baloney about foreign trading partners paying for the U.S. tariffs. Trump’s numerous attacks on peaceful neighbor Canada are notably less popular even than his trade wars overall.

Trump is not forever. If a new Republican administration succeeds him, we doubt these disruptive policies would continue. For those of us who recognize the many benefits of free trade, let’s hope 2028 will usher in a revival. Change can’t come soon enough.

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