President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is on hold for now but, if it resumes, it could deliver a fatal blow to one iconic American industry: Florida orange juice.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged Canadians to forgo “Florida orange juice altogether” as he slapped a (now-paused) 25% tariff on American exports from “red states.” It’s a potent threat: 30% of all Florida fruit juice is exported to Canada.

And the industry is in trouble already. Although oranges are the iconic symbol of the Sunshine State, pure Florida orange juice is almost extinct. For 30 years, the industry has been ravaged by disease and hurricanes, and citrus production has been on a steep decline. Orange juice is still being bottled in Florida under brand names like Tropicana, Simply Orange and Florida’s Natural, but these products rely on imported juices sourced from Brazil and Mexico to mix with the Florida-grown stock.

“Citrus is synonymous with Florida,’” declared Matt Joyner, president of the Florida Citrus Mutual, a trade organization, at a meeting last week of the state Senate Agriculture Committee. Citrus processing plants, packing houses and nurseries supply more than 33,000 jobs in Florida and have an annual economic impact of over $6.8 billion, he said.

That is all at risk if Trump resumes the reckless trade war with the U.S. allies of Canada and Mexico. The impact of their retaliatory tariffs in Trump’s home state of Florida alone would not only raise the cost of importing Mexican juice to Florida bottlers, it will likely send Canadian consumers to competitors. (The estimates of Florida’s own Department of Citrus say that Brazilian orange juice is at least 35% cheaper.) That could be the kill shot the citrus industry fears.

“We are admittedly an industry in need of your help on many levels,” pleaded Shannon Shepp, director for the Florida Department of Citrus at that meeting with state senators. For three decades, Florida taxpayers and growers have funded millions of dollars in research to save the industry from deadly diseases of citrus greening and citrus canker. The state of Florida also heavily subsidizes industry advertising to promote citrus products.

Growers need the state’s help to continue “to maintain a market,” Shepp said, then promised: “There will be a renaissance in this industry.”

That sure sounds like wishful thinking against the backdrop of a potential trade war and Florida’s now-annual ritual of hurricane destruction and recovery. After Hurricane Milton wiped out thousands of fruit trees last year, production estimates for Florida oranges fell by 20%. Citrus production for 2025 is now expected to be at century-low levels.

A seismic shift in the market has already begun. Thousands of acres of farmland, which serve to buffer adjacent communities from floods and help aquifers recharge the state’s shrinking water supply, are being sold for development. Florida-based Alico, one of the nation’s largest citrus suppliers and a powerful industry stalwart for 120 years, announced last month that after this year’s production it will discontinue citrus operations — 12% of all citrus production in Florida — and transform itself into a “diversified land company.”

“For over a century, Alico has been proud to be one of Florida’s leading citrus producers and a dedicated steward of its agricultural land, but we must now reluctantly adapt to changing environmental and economic realities,” wrote John Kiernan, the company’s president and CEO, in a statement to shareholders.

It’s a surrender, of course. In the last 10 years, Alico’s citrus production had declined by about 73%. Since 1998, Florida citrus production overall has declined 90%.

The tariff equation is undoubtedly “a really complex picture,” notes Zhengfei Guan, an economist at the University of Florida’s Institute for Food and Agriculture Sciences. While Florida citrus could be harmed by retaliatory tariffs, other produce could get a boost. Florida-grown tomatoes might benefit from tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, for example, as could Midwest corn and soybeans.

Trade wars always involve trade-offs. But it is hard to imagine a Florida without oranges — the ubiquitous wholesome symbol emblazoned on the state’s license plates and the source of both the official state beverage (orange juice) and flower (the orange blossom).

Trump offhandedly suggested that a trade war would mean Americans would feel “some pain.” Of course, if you’re a real-estate opportunist like Trump, the abandonment of citrus land equates to development potential. But it’s a shortsighted and self-defeating approach to the future. Instead of a renaissance that makes America’s favorite juice great again, Trump’s tariffs will simply make America — and Canada — even more dependent on other orange juice producers.

As expected, I couldn’t find any Republicans willing to publicly criticize Trump for this reckless policy. Perhaps, it was all a performative bluff designed to distract from the fact that the president is not focused on lowering grocery prices as most of his supporters want him to do.

If he resumes the trade war, however, it will mean a lot of hurt for Florida’s citrus industry. That sector’s death could be Trump’s legacy, and then there would be another reason for his detractors to derisively call him “the orange man.”

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Mary Ellen Klas is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former capital bureau chief for the Miami Herald, she has covered politics and government for more than three decades.

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