Lula and Bolsonaro deadlocked in final week of campaign

Travis Waldron, Bloomberg News on Sep 29, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are running neck and neck as Brazil’s presidential race enters its closing days, a new poll showed.

Lula and Bolsonaro would each receive roughly 48% of the vote in a runoff scenario, according to an AtlasIntel survey conducted for Bloomberg News and published Tuesday. The results were little changed from last week.

The leftist president would earn about 45% of votes to Bolsonaro’s roughly 42% in the first round, the poll found. Brazilians will vote Sunday in the first round, with a runoff likely to follow on Oct. 25.

Polls have suggested that Lula and Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, are deadlocked in a contest that has been repeatedly upended by a massive bank fraud investigation weighing on both campaigns.

Bolsonaro is subject to a federal police probe related to his links to the banker at the center of the case. Lula, meanwhile, has suffered from revelations tying the Supreme Court to the scandal.

The president has boosted benefits under the government’s flagship social program in a bid to seize momentum in the race’s final stages. Last week, he also banned online gambling and unveiled a plan to buy delinquent consumer debt from banks, his latest measures meant to help Brazilians deal with rising levels of household debt.

AtlasIntel surveyed 5,005 people from Sept. 23-28. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

—With assistance from Gabriel Diniz Tavares.