JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — The overwhelming defeat of two major Republican initiatives on the primary election ballot last week is giving abortion rights supporters hope that similarly energized voters will head to the polls in November.

A day after Missourians rejected plans to phase out the state income tax and make it harder to amend the constitution, a coalition of groups opposing the November ballot initiative repealing abortion rights said the stunning margins of defeat of the two Republican priorities bode well for them heading into the fall.

“Amendment 3 is the same politicians’ attempt to repeal our vote, take control away from families, and once again ban abortion. As we did last night, Missourians will vote NO on Amendment 3 to protect the will of the people and stop the abortion ban,” the Stop the Ban coalition said in a statement.

Supporters of limits on abortion say not so fast. The two questions that went down in flames on the ballot are far different than the proposed abortion ban, they argue.

“It’s an issue that is more black and white than tax policy, where there is usually a great amount of nuance,” said Sen. Adam Schnelting, R-St. Charles.

Just as last Tuesday was a day of reckoning for Republicans, the stakes surrounding the abortion vote could be high again for Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe, who watched as his top priority of phasing out the income tax fail by historic margins, winning only 17% of the statewide vote.

His wife, first lady Claudia Kehoe, is treasurer of a political action committee raising money in support of the abortion repeal, making the campaign a personal one for the governor.

It also was a bad night for the legislative sponsor of Amendment 3. Rep. Ed Lewis, R-Moberly, could not capitalize on that part of his record, finishing third in a primary race for a northeast Missouri Senate seat.

Adding to the hurdles facing anti-abortion forces, the voting will come during the midterm congressional elections, which typically are down years for the party of the president.

Sam Lee, who is registered to lobby with Campaign Life Missouri, said the key for anti-abortion forces is turnout.

“This election on Amendment 3 is about getting our people out to the polls,” Lee said. “With the only statewide race being the state auditor, there is not a lot driving turnout.”

President Donald Trump’s plan to gerrymander Missouri's congressional districts in Missouri to gain an extra GOP seat in the U.S. House also could be on the ballot, depending on the outcome of a legal fight. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins is blocking a vote of the people to stop the redistricting, saying the effort is unconstitutional; opponents immediately filed a lawsuit to force him to certify petitions and put the new congressional maps on the ballot for voters to accept or reject.

If a plan to stop the gerrymander wins a place on the ballot in November, that could push more Democrats to the polls who also may not favor Amendment 3.

“We’re not stupid about what gets people out to vote. We have our work cut out for us,” Lee said.

The 2024 vote to restore abortion rights in Missouri was carried by strong support in St. Louis City, where it won favor with 83% of voters, followed by the Kansas City area, where it garnered around 80.5% of the votes cast.

It also won in Boone County, home to the University of Missouri, but narrowly lost in Greene County, home of Springfield and Missouri State University. Rural Missouri voters opposed making the procedure legal again.

Amendment 3 on the November ballot asks if voters want to ban abortion with limited exceptions for survivors of rape and incest and for medical emergencies. It also includes provisions banning transgender minors from receiving puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones or gender transition surgeries.

Gender-affirming medical interventions, both pharmaceutical and surgical, already are banned for minors in Missouri under a law passed in 2023. Republicans added the transgender care provision to the measure, hoping it draws more "yes" votes. Democrats called its inclusion "ballot candy" meant to trick voters.

Matt Harris, a political scientist at Park University in Parkville, north of Kansas City, said he expects the final vote on Amendment 3 will be much closer than the two GOP amendments that failed in the primary.

He said the issue of abortion has a more settled set of supporters and opponents. The wild card will be how people react to the transgender provisions in the ballot language.

"We saw on Tuesday that there seems to be an attitude that voters are fed up with what's going on in the Legislature, but it's kind of hard to say how that will translate in November because it will be a different electorate," Harris said. “I wouldn’t expect it to be one of these 80-20 things."

Under the first lady’s watch as treasurer of the Her Health, Her Future PAC, abortion opponents are attempting to avoid what happened in the 2024 vote to repeal the abortion ban when anti-abortion groups were outspent 10 to 1 and 52% of Missourians voted to repeal the ban.

The first lady’s work, however, already is trailing abortion rights groups.

According to Missouri Ethics Commission filings, the Her Health, Her Future PAC had $797,801 in the bank as of July 1, compared to the $3.6 million in the coffers of Stop the Ban PAC.

Among donors to Her Health is Schnelting, who contributed $5,001 in June.

Adding to the abortion rights tally, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg contributed $1.25 million to Stop the Ban on Wednesday, putting the campaign over the $4 million mark.

Other donors to Stop the Ban include model Karlie Kloss, a Webster Groves native who now lives in New York. She contributed $50,000 in June.

Kathryn Wagner, spokeswoman for Her Health, Her Future PAC downplayed both the results of Tuesday's election and the big dollars flowing to opponents of the ban.

"Tuesday’s election doesn’t change the fundamental reality that Missourians believe our children deserve protection. The millions from left-wing extremist organizations and out-of-state billionaires like Michael Bloomberg cannot buy a new set of values for Missouri voters, and we’ll continue making that case forcefully to every voter in our state," Wagner said Friday.

The “no” on 3 campaign includes Abortion Action Missouri, the ACLU of Missouri, Action St. Louis Power Project, Beacon Reproductive Health Network, Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes, Planned Parenthood Great Rivers Action, PROMO and the Fairness Project.

The governor's office did not respond to a request for comment.

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