The big question this fall is not whether Ken Paxton, Greg Abbott, Bo French or TIm O’Hare will lose.

They’re all in elections that are too close to call. James Talarico, Gina Hinojosa, Jon Rosenthal and Alisa Simmons are pushing them like no Democrats in 30 years.

But no matter whether those Republicans lose, other Democrats will get elected across Texas.

At least two local Texas House seats in Fort Worth, Arlington and Mansfield — maybe three — are on the verge of flipping to Democrats.

That’s not only thanks to Talarico. Democratic thank-you notes also go to all the disenchanted Republicans who wanted to re-elect Sen. John Cornyn, Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright and Comptroller Kelly Hancock in the March primary instead of trashing them in favor of Paxton, French and now-Comptroller Don Huffines.

Over and over, Texas Republicans chose MAGA insurgents over sitting officials who had a combined total of 15 election victories.

Is it any wonder this election is close?

I’m not going to say that either Paxton, Abbott, French or O’Hare will lose to Talarico, Hinojosa, Rosenthal or Simmons.

But some Republicans are already assigning pre-blame.

You might even say that Paxton himself has already pinned the tail on an (elephant?) donkey.

On Sept. 24, speaking in Washington to would-be donors, Paxton said President Donald Trump’s off-year midterm Republican National Convention “dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped.”

The words were caught on audio leaked to The New York Times. Other guests verified them.

The same day, according to Politico, Paxton also said his campaign is “all coming — you know — from D.C. I don’t control message.”

And the online Axios news site had more choice Paxton audio.

“It’s the war,” he said in the same talk.

“It’s gas prices. It’s diesel. ... I don’t know what’s behind some of the decisions.”

Notably, he did not blame Gov. Abbott forcing school vouchers onto rural schools, or welcoming 600 data centers. Both discouraged many faithful Republicans.

More notably, Paxton did not blame Paxton.

At the same speech, according to yet another audio clip published by the online Texas Tribune, Paxton also said that cutting “mandatory spending” — meaning mostly Social Security benefits, Medicare insurance or Medicaid benefits — is something that “you’re gonna have to do. ... We have to suck it up.”

That isn’t why he’s losing.

But that’s only because voters have yet to hear the audio.

On Oct. 5 at a Republican women’s club meeting in Mansfield, O’Hare painted a much rosier picture of the party’s chances:

“The question I get asked most today is, are we going to win?” he said, “and the answer is, yes, we are going to win.”

But O’Hare also said Democrats’ enthusiasm was higher and “we have pulled even.”

He’s talking about elections Republicans have won for 33 years in Washington, 32 years in Austin and 40 years at the courthouse.

The same day, Houston-area state Rep. Briscoe Cain, a former Texas House Elections Committee chairman, rattled the faithful with a chilling one-line post on X, the old Twitter.

“If the election were held tomorrow,” he wrote, “all state wide races go blue.”

Asked why, he answered with another single line: “Reality.”

Three hours later, probably after a few phone calls, he explained.

“The point I was making,” he wrote, “ ... is that Republican voters feel too comfortable. ... What I’m seeing is overconfidence.”

In a later post, he said only that the data is “troubling.”

“No one should assume,” he wrote, that “Republicans will win just because they have for 30 or so years.”

These are not the same Republicans.

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