President Donald Trump won a surprising number of Gen Z voters in 2024, with a particularly strong performance among young men. Although Kamala Harris still won a majority of the 18-29 age cohort, Trump received the largest share of the youth vote for a Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. But as the midterm elections approach and the U.S.-Iran war simmers on, Gen Z support for Trump—and possibly his party—is cratering.

Even before Trump attacked Iran earlier this year, young voters had started to sour on the president and his policies. Trump saw the largest drop in approval among Gen Z out of all age groups in the aftermath of Liberation Day, when he announced a slate of tariffs that would drive up the cost of goods for U.S. consumers. The administration’s handling of the Epstein files was also a source of disillusionment for young MAGA voters.

The Iran war is yet another in the list of unpopular policies. Most Gen Z Americans (57%) disapprove of how Trump has handled the military campaign against Iran, according to new polling from the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group.

Six months into the war, nearly one third of Gen Z Trump supporters regret their vote, a recent Navigator poll finds. As of July, his net approval rating among 18-29-year-olds was -33, down from +5 on inauguration day. While there are many factors at play, the Iran war undoubtedly has contributed to the dissatisfaction young Americans feel toward Trump.

Common wisdom holds that foreign policy does not play a significant role in how Americans vote, but this overlooks how foreign policy intersects with perhaps the most important issue of all: the economy. Young Americans currently face a high degree of financial pressure amid inflation and job insecurity.

The Iran war has only exacerbated the affordability crisis, driving up oil prices and the cost of living for Americans. Forty-one percent of those aged 18-29 say the war has impacted their cost of living “a great deal,” reports the same IGA survey. This is up from 36% when the same question was posed in April. Young Americans are directly linking the war against Iran to higher costs, which could spell bad news for Trump and Republicans come the midterms.

Recent elections have proven the salience of affordability as a winning electoral message. Last year’s New York City mayoral race was a prime example. Establishment Democrat Andrew Cuomo lost to young democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in an election largely powered by young people. Mamdani won a whopping 78% of Gen Z voters after running a campaign laser-focused on making the city more affordable. His appeal also cut across ideological lines—9% of 2024 Trump voters cast their ballot for Mamdani.

This is not to imply that Gen Z Trump voters will switch their allegiance to the Democrats in November. But as they increasingly feel that Trump has reneged on his campaign promises of lowering inflation and starting no new wars (though he now denies having said that), they may choose to not show up at all.

It was always an open question whether Trump’s inroads with young Americans would translate to broader support for Republicans (although the share of young voters identifying as Republican in 2024 increased by nine percentage points from 2020). These midterm election results will be a test of whether Gen Z’s rightward shift two years ago was the start of a lasting trend or a one-off incident attributable to Trump’s unique appeal. Either way, their disillusionment stems in part from the Iran war and U.S. support for Israel.

Trump’s war against Iran is a contradiction of his campaign posturing as the peace candidate. But perhaps more importantly for November, it has crossed over into a “kitchen table issue” by exacerbating economic uncertainty. The midterm elections are shaping up to be a referendum on Trump and his administration’s performance, and his military adventurism will likely lead young voters to turn their back on Republicans.

_____

Eloise Cassier is Research Associate for the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group.

_____

©2026 Tribune Content Agency, LLC.