President Trump's Latino support faces a test in Texas midterms

FORT WORTH, Texas — Republican incumbent Manny Ramirez says economic strains and high costs of living are top of mind for Hispanic voters that he’s hearing from as he bids for reelection to a Northwest Tarrant County commissioners court seat.

“You can’t turn around or go to the gas station without noticing the prices are way too high,” he said.

While knocking on doors, his Democratic opponent Nydia Cárdenas often hears from Hispanic voters who are concerned about the state takeover of the Fort Worth school district and actions taken by United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement during its crackdown on deportations.

They are the main issues driving them to the polls, at least for top-of-ticket races, she said.

The candidates are fighting a local battle, but the Hispanic voters in Tarrant County share some of the same concerns as other Hispanic voters across the state and country in the lead up to the Nov. 3 midterm election. Early voting starts Oct. 19.

The voting bloc helped deliver President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, sending him to the White House for a second term. Republicans in Texas also saw gains that year, picking up two seats in historically Democratic districts in South Texas.

Halfway through Trump’s term, some Latino voters are rethinking their presidential pick, polling shows. This year’s midterm offers the first opportunity to express that disappointment with their votes, even if the president isn’t on the ballot himself.

Midterms are historically tricky for the party in control of the White House, and this year — when Texas is on pace to have the tightest races it has seen in years — Hispanic Texans have emerged as a key vote to win over.

“The Hispanic vote is going to be the determinate vote,” said Daniel Alegre, CEO of Spanish-language media company TelevisaUnivision. “It is the true swing vote that is still persuadable.”

But it’s not as simple as red versus blue.

“They’re voting based on the issue, and I think that’s actually fundamentally healthy for our democracy,” Alegre said

What the polling shows

When 564 Texas Latino voters were asked to select up to five of the important issues facing the state, more than half — 54% — included jobs and cost of living. Other frequently included issues were healthcare costs and access, housing costs, border security, immigration reform and data centers, according to the N+ Univision and YouGov survey conducted between Aug. 27-Sept. 4.

In a poll from the Latino Community Foundation, the most important issues among Latino registered voters in Texas were primarily tied to the economy.

“Latinos want real solutions on affordability,” said Julián Castro, the foundation’s CEO and a former Housing and Urban Development Secretary CEO of the Latino Community Foundation during the Obama administration. “They’re deeply worried about rising housing costs, healthcare costs, cost of living in general. They also want to see an end to immigration enforcement cruelty.”

The N+ Univision and YouGov poll also found that about one-third of Latino Trump voters are regretting or feeling doubtful about their 2024 votes.

But it’s not that voters are necessarily moving away from Trump, said Alegre. Rather, they are moving toward candidates who will address their concerns about costs of living — the most issue driving Hispanic voters, he said.

Hispanic voters are pleading for a candidate who will listen to them, solve their problems and connect with them.

“I need a candidate who is going to solve and provide the best economic well-being for me, my family, and my extended family,” Alegre said. “That’s what they’re asking for. They’re not saying I’m going to vote Democrat or I’m going to vote Republican.”

The races for Hispanic-majority congressional districts in South Texas have drawn national attention, as Republicans try to keep control of Congress.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico have spent a few million on Spanish-language advertisements, according to AdImpact Politics.

Most Hispanic voters want to be connected with Spanish-language media, Alegre said.

“If you connect with me in Spanish, it means you really, really care,” he said, explaining voter opinions.

Latino leaders in Texas have pressed the Democratic Governors Association to invest more into the race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.

The group’s leader, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear “has access to capital that could really be used by Gina to continue to get in front of as many people as possible and help continue to help her raise money,” said state Rep. Ramon Romero, Jr., who chairs the legislature’s Mexican American Legislative Caucus.

Castro notes that 45% of respondents to Latino Community Foundation polls said they hadn’t been contacted by any candidate or party, which means many potential Hispanic voters remain untouched and uninformed this election cycle.

“That’s something that should change,” he said.

On the ground in Tarrant County

Elva Camacho, a Republican precinct chair and president of the Tarrant County Republican Hispanic Assembly, thinks it’s a misconception that many Hispanic voters will return to back Democrats.

“I think Hispanics are just naturally capitalist, and I think with the Democratic Party, they see the socialist part of the agenda,” Camacho said.

Asked what issues are most important to her, Camagio said, God, Jesus Christ and the Constitution.

She hopes Republicans will vote for their “values and morals” in the coming elections.

Camacho had mixed reviews on Trump’s performance, but an optimistic outlook.

She is supportive of his work to secure the border, but does have some reservations about the president’s “loose lips” when he says something he shouldn’t.

“He still has two more years, and I’m hoping that he does his best to get our country back on track and do what’s right,” Camacho said.

But JoAnna Cardoza, who serves as the chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party’s Latino Voter Outreach Committee, sees a shift happening in her own family.

“They’re not happy,” she said of family members who have previously supported Trump, later adding: “They’re ready for something different to happen.”

Cardoza said she tried to warn family members against him, but they didn’t listen. They even got red MAGA hats in support of their presidential pick, she said.

“But not anymore,” she said.

The No. 1 issue Cardoza hears about from Latino voters and in her circle of friends and family is immigration enforcement.

“The administration said that they were going to target criminals, and obviously they’re not doing that,” she said, referencing the deportation of a TCU student who was his high school’s valedictorian as an example. The student was deported in July after being arrested in Arlington for public lewdness and evading police.

She also noted the negative economic effects associated with ICE enforcement actions. Other issues top of mind for Latino voters are TEA takeovers of school districts and the economy, she said.

Cardoza said the local Democratic Party is block walking and letting people know about the importance of the election. Personally, she didn’t grow up talking about voting and why it’s important.

“I think having those one-on-one conversations are very critical to get our community out to vote,” she said.

Camacho said door-knocking is key for candidates wanting to reach Hispanic voters in the final stretch of campaign season. It’s especially important to educate voters on the importance of local elections, she said.

“I ran for office, and I was told by a mentor that you are your greatest advertisement,” said Camancho, who challenged Romero for the Texas House in 2020. “You don’t need a whole lot of money. You need you. You get out there, you meet people, and they’ll remember who you are.”

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