Poll shows Democrats lead in critical Pa. swing district with economy, cost of living top issues

Christopher Dornblaser and Lindsay Weber, The Morning Call on Oct 29, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

A newly released poll of Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District shows voters are concerned about the rising cost of living, and are leaning toward voting for Democratic candidates in the upcoming midterm election.

The survey by Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion shows Democrat Bob Brooks with a 49% to 43% lead over incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie among likely voters in the Lehigh Valley-based district. The 6-point lead for Brooks is just outside the poll’s margin of error of 5%.

The same poll shows Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro with a 25-point lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity among likely voters in the district.

Though the poll was released Thursday, it was conducted earlier this month, between Oct. 6 and 15. Pollsters surveyed 529 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District, weighted to gender, race, age, party and education to best reflect the voting population’s parameters.

The poll provides a snapshot of what is expected to be one of the closest races for Congress in the nation, one of just a handful that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives next year.

Top voter issues

The cost of living and the economy was the most important issue for those surveyed, with 80% saying it shaped their voting decision to a large extent. President Donald Trump and his record was second, with 74% of respondents saying that also shaped their decision to a large extent.

Of those surveyed, 59% said they disapproved of how Trump is doing his job.

Immigration (63%) and the conflict in Iran (50%) were the third and fourth biggest issues, according to the poll.

When respondents were asked an open-ended question of what the single biggest issue was in terms of deciding their vote, the majority, 40%, said the economy, followed by “other” at 15%. 14% said that their single biggest issue is their support for or opposition to a specific candidate or party.

In the 7th District race for Congress, the poll also shows Brooks doing well with independent voters, leading Mackenzie 53% to 29% among this group. He also leads among women, respondents with a four-year college degree and young voters aged 18-34.

However, the numbers also show an opportunity for Mackenzie among late deciders. Of those who said they were not sure who they’re voting for, 33% said they were leaning toward Mackenzie, compared to 18% for Brooks.

Mackenzie also has an edge among voters aged 51 and older. 54% of respondents between 51 and 64 years of age prefer Mackenzie, compared to 42% who favor Brooks in that same age group. Among voters 65 and older, 50% prefer Mackenzie and 41% chose Brooks.

The poll also indicates higher name recognition for Mackenzie, the incumbent, compared to Brooks, who is making his first run for public office.

Mackenzie has both higher favorable and unfavorable numbers than Brooks. Of those polled, 29% had a favorable impression of Brooks, compared to 39% for Mackenzie. Meanwhile, 35% said they hand an unfavorable view of Brooks compared to 44% for Mackenzie.

Governor’s race

In the governor’s race, independents in the 7th District leaned even more Democratic, favoring Shapiro over Garrity by a 59% to 34% margin.

The poll also suggests name recognition remains an issue for Garrity, who has been vastly outspent by Shapiro. Just weeks before the election, 20% of those surveyed said they had not heard of Garrity.

59% of voters surveyed said they have a favorable view of Shapiro, compared to 23% who view Garrity favorably.

The 7th district trends mirror voters’ preferences statewide: a recent poll from Franklin & Marshall College, which surveyed voters across Pennsylvania between Oct. 7 through Oct. 18, found Shapiro leading Garrity 54% to 33%.

The Muhlenberg College poll was conducted over the phone by surveying 529 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District, which consists of Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties, plus part of Monroe County. Of the people surveyed, 43% identified as Democrat, 42% identified as Republican, 14% identified as independent, and 1% identified as a member of another party.

The majority of those polled, 83%, said they are definitely going to vote.

_____