Independent forecaster shifts outlook of two close South Florida congressional races toward Democrats

Anthony Man, South Florida Sun Sentinel on Oct 29, 2026

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Inside Elections, a prominent nonpartisan political forecaster, on Thursday shifted two close South Florida congressional races toward the Democrats.

Both contests are in congressional districts whose boundaries were changed this year in ways that Republicans who control state government hoped would benefit their candidates.

But the political environment has changed in six months since the new districts were implemented.

In the 25th District contest between Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who is seeking a third term, and Republican Scott Singer, a former mayor of Boca Raton, Inside Elections’ update shifted it to “tilt Democratic.”

Previously Inside Elections rated the contest as a toss-up.

The 25th District runs mostly along the coast from Delray Beach to Miami Beach. The other major independent analysts, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, had previously moved the Moskowitz-Singer race to leaning Democratic.

In the 22nd District contest, between Republican Casey Askar of Naples and Democrat Pia Dandiya of Palm Beach Gardens, Inside Elections shifted it from “tilt Republican” to toss-up.

Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball previously had made similar shifts in the 22nd District.

The 22nd takes in western Broward and Palm Beach counties and runs west through the Everglades to the Gulf of Mexico.

“Open seats, even ones such as this one drawn to elect a Republican, are proving a challenge for the GOP,” Inside Elections wrote, adding that Dandiya “is at least a coin flip” to defeat Askar.

Inside Elections said in a statement that “Democrats are favored to win back both the House and the Senate — potentially with room to spare.”

It changed ratings in a total of 64 races, with 63 in favor of Democrats and 1 in favor of Republicans, most in the House of Representatives, with some in contests for governor and U.S. Senate.

It left its assessments of the governor’s race between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly (lean Republican) and the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon (likely Republican) unchanged.

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