NEW YORK — Democrats are banking on scoring at least some modest gains in the New York City metro area in the looming midterm congressional elections for the House of Representatives amid President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity.

But what if the expected blue wave turns into an even bigger anti-Trump political tsunami?

As early in-person voting kicks off in New York, Democrats are eyeing a handful of solidly red House districts in New York and the wider region that could be up for grabs if 2026 becomes a true wipeout for the GOP.

GOP Rep. Nick LaLota’s NY-01 district on Long Island’s East End, the NJ-02 in South Jersey held by Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew and the open NY-21 district in the far upstate North Country are all seen as possible reach targets for Democrats despite voting for Trump by wide margins.

If, on the other hand, polls turn out to be wildly off base or Republicans make a stunning 11th-hour comeback, Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-New York, could find himself in an unlikely close race as pro-Israel voters in his North Shore district punish him for being in the same party as Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

“New York-area Republicans are running hard, if not scared, ahead of the potential blue tsunami that their party and its candidates are seeing across the nation,” said Lawrence Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “But the metro area has a potential to be an outlier, worrying Democrats.”

Here’s a closer look at the local-ish races on the fringes of the midterm fight for Congress:

Long Island sleeper?

LaLota, who portrays himself as a moderate suburban Republican, is running for a third term in what looks like a layup for Republicans.

After taking the GOP baton from ex-Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022, LaLota has twice won by wide margins in the district that stretches from North Shore suburbs to the ritzy Hamptons, with a lot of more blue-collar turf in between.

He says he supports Trump but is not afraid to occasionally break from the party line, like when he and other suburban Republicans won their fight for a bigger SALT deduction in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

Democratic newcomer Chris Gallant is a military veteran and air traffic controller who calls himself a moderate and a proud gun owner.

He’s banking on voters wanting to send a strong message to LaLota about rising costs and what many suburban voters feel is the unaffordability of the American dream on Trump’s watch.

Revelations about Gallant’s past as a beefcake gay model for a leather bondage store have raised eyebrows. But Gallant says he’s not ashamed of being “kinky as f” — and insists Long Island voters will be worried about their pocketbooks, not his sex life.

Some polls show a tight race. But in a sign Democrats are still not optimistic about their chances, Gallant was left off a coveted list of “red-to-blue” candidates who usually enjoy more support from donors and political insiders.

“On paper, NY-01 should be the best of the three,” said Jacob Rubashkin of the nonpartisan Inside Elections group. “However I am skeptical that the Gallant campaign will be effective.”

Party-switcher faces tougher race

Van Drew is a rare species: a party-switching congressman who has thrived in his new political home.

The former conservative lawmaker, known for his sharp dressing style and political sharp elbows, jumped ship to join Trump’s GOP in the president’s first term after winning as a Democrat in 2018.

He’s hasn’t faced a competitive battle ever since in his South Jersey district, which has been moving to the right in recent years. Van Drew won by a whopping 17% landslide in 2024.

Democrat Zack Mullock, the mayor of picturesque beach town Cape May, says the political climate has changed dramatically. The only published poll shows Van Drew with a comfortable 10% margin, although it also revealed Mullock is little known and could have room to improve.

A Democratic-aligned super PAC decided to pour $1.5 million into the race in hopes of boosting Mullock to an 11th-hour comeback win. The nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball last week shifted the race from solid to likely Republican.

“Mullock will also need to turn out the blue-collar South Jersey voters who are struggling to cover increased costs and who hold President Trump and his ally Jeff Van Drew responsible,” said Micah Rasmussen of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider College. “And just as importantly, Democrats will need to hope that turnout collapses in the most Republican parts of the district.”

Anger in Trump (North) Country

The sprawling rural NY-21 looks like a petri dish for the kind of place where things have gone very south for Trump and the Republicans.

Stretching from Albany suburbs to the St. Lawrence River, it’s right on the border with Canada where Trump’s trade war bites much harder than almost anywhere else.

Farmers are paying much more for diesel and tourism is slumping as north-of-the-border visitors stay home. Trump’s draconian health cuts have badly hurt rural hospitals.

The seat was left open when popular GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik decided not to seek reelection after Trump pulled the rug out from under her last year and reversed plans to appoint her as U.N. ambassador.

Trump admitted he didn’t want to risk losing the seat in a potential special election. That’s not a good look for the GOP as they try to hold the district, which Stefanik won in 2024 by 24% and Trump carried by 21%.

“The fact that NY-21 is even considered to be close means that Republicans are in a defensive struggle across the country,” said Harvey Schantz, a political science professor at SUNY-Plattsburgh.

“It was telling that national Republicans clearly didn’t want to have a special election here after 2024, as the seat may have truly been at risk,” said J. Miles Coleman, an analyst with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Republican Anthony Constantino is a fierce MAGA supporter of Trump who once grabbed attention by slapping a Trump campaign sign atop his bumper sticker factory.

Constantino has struggled to unite Republicans, winning a bitter primary fight over four-term local state Assemblyman Rober Smullen, who threatened to run on the Conservative Party line before agreeing to drop out.

Democrat Blake Gendebien is a dairy farmer and first-time candidate who has raised tons of money with the help of Democratic allies who see him as an ideal moderate fit for the district.

Polls show a toss-up race, with Gendebien leading by a narrow 4% margin in an independent Siena College poll.

A Democrat on thin ice?

Rep. Tom Suozzi is a veteran congressman who has molded a powerful brand as a moderate Democrat who isn’t afraid to take on state and federal leaders of his own party.

He came out of retirement to retake his old seat for Democrats after ex-Rep. George Santos was expelled from the House over fraud charges that later sent him to prison.

So why do some pundits believe Suozzi could find himself in a tougher-than-expected race against Republican Mike LiPetri if a lot of things unexpectedly go right for Republicans between now and Nov. 3?

The North Shore is home to a large community of relatively conservative Jewish voters, some of whom are turning away from Democrats over the growing criticism of Israel within the party. They’re also angry at Mayor Mamdani in a district where many voters work in the city and feel they are strongly impacted by his progressive policies.

The district also includes many historic Republican strongholds where Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s run for governor could juice GOP turnout.

Insiders in both parties say Suozzi could face a tough reelection race at some point, like if a Democratic president is in the White House. After all, Santos was a virtual unknown when he won in 2022.

But they doubt 2026 is that year, unless polls are massively wrong.

More than a wave?

With Trump’s approval ratings sitting at historic lows, polls say Democrats and independents are furious at congressional Republicans for rubber-stamping the president’s unpopular policies like the war in Iran and the trade war tariffs that have driven up prices on everything gas and groceries.

Even some moderate Republicans are looking to shake things up, or are not motivated to vote at all with their party on the back foot.

That environment has put many House Republican incumbents in swing districts on very shaky political ground.

In the NYC metro area, Rep. Mike Lawler has long been seen as being locked in a toss-up race for his Westchester County-based district while Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is thought to be a long shot to hold onto his affluent NJ-07 district.

Nonpartisan political pundits predict those shifts are already enough to give Democrats the handful of seats they need to win control of the House and install Brooklyn Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as House Speaker.

If Democrats can also flip stronger Republican districts like NY-21, NY-01 or NJ-02, it would open the door to much bigger Democratic majority perhaps of more than 230 or even 240 seats. That larger potential edge could give Democrats far more political muscle, especially if they also win the Senate, as Trump heading into the last two years of his second term as a politically weakened lame duck.

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