Texas races, including US Senate, in dead heat ahead of early voting

Eleanor Dearman, Fort Worth Star-Telegram on Oct 14, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Texas’ statewide elections are in dead heat in the lead up to early voting, according to a new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

The latest numbers show nail-biter races for the U.S. Senate, Texas governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller and railroad commissioner, with state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, by 3 points at the top of the ticket.

The poll of 861 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5 and has a margin of error of 3.34 percentage points, meaning the results could swing by that amount in either direction.

The vast majority of Republicans and Independents who responded to the poll said they planned to vote along party lines in the U.S. Senate race, but Talarico has the support of 69% of independents.

The close margins the statewide races polled is significant in Texas, where a Democrat hasn’t been elected statewide since 1994.

Election Day is Nov. 3. Early voting runs Oct. 19-30.

The poll found:

—U.S. Senate: Talarico with 50% of votes to Paxton’s 47%. Three percent of those polled favor Libertarian Ted Brown and 2% opted for “someone else.”

—Governor: Democrat Gina HInojosa winning 49% of votes to Republican incumbent Greg Abbott’s 48%. One percent of those polled favored Libertarian Pat Dixon and 2% picked “someone else.”

—Lt. Governor: Democrat Vikki Goodwin winning 49% of votes to Republican incumbent Dan Patrick’s 46%. Two percent of respondents favored Libertarian Anthony Cristo, 1% favored Green Party Candidate Kevin McCormick and two percent selected “someone else.”

—Attorney General: Democrat Nathan Johnson leading with 48% of votes to Republican Mayes Middleton’s 47%. One percent of those polled picked Libertarian Tom Oxford and three percent picked “someone else.”

—Comptroller: Republican incumbent Don Huffines leading with 47% of votes to Democrat Sarah Eckhardt’s 46%. Two percent favored Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza, one percent picked Green Party candidate Shehla Faizi and three percent selected “someone else.”

—Railroad Commissioner: Democrat Jon Rosenthal ahead of Republican Bo French with 47% of votes to French’s 46%. Three percent opted for Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and four percent preferred “someone else.”

_____