Latvian leader poised for big win in election shadowed by Putin

Aaron Eglitis, Bloomberg News on Oct 3, 2026

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Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ party was on course to win the largest share of votes in an election on Saturday amid growing security threats from Russia, putting him in a strong position ahead of coalition talks to form the next government.

The United List secured 35.6% of the vote, according to an exit poll released by LTV public broadcaster. If confirmed, this would be the best result of any party in Latvian parliamentary elections since the Baltic nation regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Together with two of his current coalition allies — New Unity and the National Alliance — Kulbergs could count on 51% of the vote, according to the poll. The numbers may change as the ballots are tallied with first figures expected to come in the early hours of Sunday.

The result would mark a major coup for Kulbergs, 47, who became prime minister at the end of May after a bungled response to drone incursions brought down the previous government. His brash style and near-constant social media presence helped the support for his party surge in the final months of the campaign.

“This is a great, great amount of trust from voters,” Kulbergs told Latvian TV after the exit polls were announced. “People want change, people want direct communication, people want to see that we’re putting the economy as the top priority for the country.”

The election took place against the backdrop of heightened security concern for the Baltic state. Russia has been ramping up sabotage actions and warned this week it could strike defense manufacturers in Europe that help supply arms to Ukraine, potentially putting Latvia in the crosshairs.

To prevent that, the country has been moving to fortify its border with Russia and Belarus and has ramped up defense spending, aiming to reach 5% of economic output.

The European Union and NATO member state has become one of the staunchest supporters of Kyiv since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion four and a half years ago. Latvia hosts 20% of the Ukrainian government’s data on its servers for security, according to the prime minister. It’s also home to the biggest Russian-speaking minority among the three Baltic states.

The two parties courting those voters were set to receive a combined 10.8% support, the exit poll showed.

Kulbergs has been strongly pro-Ukrainian with his government last month attempting to prevent removal of two Russian billionaires from the EU’s sanctions list.

Protecting this year’s parliamentary elections has been a high priority. Latvia asked Germany to send it fighter jets to protect its airspace during the election. The country will also start talks on joining France’s nuclear deterrence initiative with Paris agreeing to strengthen the Baltic state’s air defense, Kulbergs said last month.