NJ's Rep. Kean on list of 'almost cooked' Republicans amid looming blue wave

Dave Goldiner, New York Daily News on Sep 30, 2026

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Embattled Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-New Jersey, has reportedly made a list of “almost cooked” Republican incumbents as an expected Democratic blue wave looms in the upcoming congressional midterm elections.

Kean, who represents the leafy suburban 7th District of New Jersey, is seeing his chances of winning a third term start to slip away as GOP funders lump him in a group of the five to 10 most endangered GOP lawmakers, according to a new report from Punchbowl News.

“There are a number of GOP lawmakers across the country that both parties privately agree are in deep, deep trouble,” the report said, identifying Kean as one of the practically doomed representatives.

The report noted that Kean, the famously aloof scion of a famed Garden State political dynasty, lost his grip on the swing seat when he disappeared from public view for months without explanation.

He later explained he was undergoing treatment for depression, but critics asked why he kept that a secret for so long from constituents.

“The two-term lawmaker’s disappearance made national news, and GOP operatives fear his reluctance to be forthcoming over personal problems turned off key swing voters,” the report.

Kean, who won reelection in 2024 by about 3%, is facing a very strong challenge from Democrat Rebecca Bennett, who has led in some polls. Several non-partisan political pundits now consider Bennett a favorite to topple Kean.

Kean is one of two endangered suburban Republicans in the New York City metro area along with Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., whose Westchester County-based district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris even while giving him another term in 2024.

Unlike Kean, Lawler is considered a formidable campaigner and is given decent odds of holding onto his seat by Democrats and Republicans alike. He is battling a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley.

All incumbent Democrats in the city and surrounding suburbs are considered strong bets to win reelection, although Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., could face a close fight in his Long Island NY-04 district.

Republicans hold a five-seat edge in the House of Representatives, meaning Democrats likely need to flip only three seats to win control. Most pundits predict they will topple about 10 seats, although that number could grow with President Trump’s approval rating plunging to historic lows.

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