Lula's lead narrows as son faces corruption probe ahead of Brazil election

Gabriel Diniz Tavares, Bloomberg News on Aug 31, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro decreased ahead of Brazil’s October election, as the leftist leader faces fallout from corruption allegations against one of his sons.

Lula leads Bolsonaro 47.1% to 42.6% in a runoff scenario, according to an AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News published Monday. He led Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, by roughly 6 points in the previous survey in July.

A separate poll published Monday by BTG Pactual/Nexus showed the leftist leader with a 1-point lead over his conservative challenger, unchanged from the previous week.

Brazil’s real climbed as much as 0.6% against the dollar Monday morning before trimming gains, outperforming peers in Latin America. Brazilian swap rates also fell slightly and stocks gained as investors assessed Lula’s smaller polling lead.

“Election risks are more front-and-center,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management. “I suspect between now and the election, election outcome probabilities will be the dominant driver.”

The AtlasIntel survey suggests Lula has suffered politically from investigations into his son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha. Federal authorities are probing allegations of corruption and influence peddling against Lulinha related to medical cannabis programs linked to the health ministry.

Lula isn’t facing claims of impropriety, and his son has denied wrongdoing.

A majority of respondents — roughly 53% — believe Lulinha attempted to influence government decisions to improperly benefit associates, while 55% say the investigations directly affect Lula’s administration.

About 35% said they believed it would significantly harm Lula’s candidacy, while roughly 25% said they thought it would cause a little damage.

Lula said he would not protect his son from investigations during a Thursday night national television interview. But he said he’s “certain” Lulinha will be found innocent.

Bolsonaro hasn’t yet capitalized on those issues. While Lula’s vote share declined in the runoff scenario, the right-wing senator failed to make up ground of his own. He remains the only candidate with a higher rejection rate than Lula, according to the survey.

Bolsonaro has spent months struggling to overcome revelations that he sought money for a film about his father from Daniel Vorcaro, the man at the center of a massive bank fraud investigation that has rocked Brazil.

In late July, a Supreme Court justice authorized federal authorities to probe those ties. Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing.

Lula leads Bolsonaro 43.4% to 33.7% in a first round scenario, with other candidates trailing far behind them. Brazilians will vote on Oct. 4, with a runoff likely to take place three weeks later.

AtlasIntel interviewed 5,014 people on August 25-30 with margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

—With assistance from Andrew Rosati, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo and Beatriz Amat.