Republicans’ midterm defeat is crushing any remaining hopes that Congress would approve President Donald Trump’s unprecedented $1.5 trillion defense budget request amid an unpopular war in the Middle East.

Democrats, who won solid majorities of both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, were already largely opposed to the 44% increase from the previous fiscal year and are now signaling they will block any efforts to push it forward.

At the same time, Republican lawmakers returning to the lame-duck session before the new Congress is seated in January may not be able to muster the support or political will to ram through the massive defense spending package, especially amid the Pentagon’s unpopular war against Iran that cost many of them their jobs.

“We must push for the development of a more realistic and sustainable approach to our national security — one that does not require a defense budget in excess of $1 trillion or one paid for with draconian cuts to critical domestic programs,” Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the incoming chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement after the election.

The Democratic resistance risks imperiling some of Trump’s splashiest defense ambitions, including the Golden Dome missile shield and his Trump-class battleship plan, and bodes poorly for defense contractors — some of which also face the prospect of congressional scrutiny over alleged conflicts of interest with the Trump administration.

Shares of major contractors, including Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp., fell this week as the midterm results eroded expectations of a ramp-up in US military spending.

Lawmakers returning to Washington on Monday are going to have to grapple with the annual defense policy bill and a spending plan for fiscal year 2027 — which began on Oct. 1 under stopgap funding that runs out on Dec. 11. Both those measures are now in limbo.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth justified Trump’s steep fiscal 2027 budget request by arguing the funds would kickstart badly needed defense modernization efforts as autonomous systems change modern warfare.

But the sheer size of the increase — combined with domestic spending cuts, the growing costs of the Iran war and expensive projects like the Trump-class battleships — grated on lawmakers, including Republicans. And newly emboldened Democrats are likely to be far more motivated to kill off these massive defense spending plans than Republicans are to defend them in the lame-duck session.

Both sides are far apart on the defense budget and Democrats are likely to only approve a figure around $1 trillion, according to a person familiar with the planning. Democrats are anxious not to be seen approving continued funding for the war against Iran but still want to give the Pentagon what it genuinely needs for modernization efforts, the person said, declining to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

And the administration official who is supposed to shepherd the legislation to passage is already on the outs on Capitol Hill. A vote to impeach Hegseth is expected as early as this week as calls for his dismissal grow.

Most analysts simply do not expect the Pentagon to secure its full request. “The budget ultimately passed by Congress will likely fall short of the Trump administration’s ambitions,” Travis Sharp with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments wrote in a paper published Nov. 4.

The defense policy bill’s passage “is a coin toss” and Democrats moving to restrict the president’s war powers and target Hegseth “could derail the whole process,” Todd Harrison, a defense budget analyst with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said.

Some Democrats, enjoying their new leverage, say they should pass another stopgap measure before the end of the year and punt long-term bills to the next Congress — where they can use their control of the chambers to shape the next set of funding bills with their priorities in mind.

“Now that we have these kinds of majorities, I don’t know that we need a long-term bill,” Representative Glenn Ivey, a Maryland Democrat on the appropriations panel, said on Bloomberg TV. “I’d be leaning more towards a short-term fix.”

Democratic leverage

The midterm results give Democrats a stronger position in the negotiations over that annual defense authorization bill, said Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat and senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Trump’s unpopular war against Iran — which Vice President JD Vance blamed for the election loss — complicates not just Pentagon funding but also the defense authorization bill.

Smith told the New Republic cutting war funding will be “one of the first things we do.”

Pentagon officials, including Hegseth and his deputy Steve Feinberg, intensified outreach to Congress before the election to make the case for the $1.5 trillion request. The wrinkle is that $350 billion of that sum was envisioned as part of a party-line package outside the regular budgeting process.

The Defense Department “must be funded to meet the moment right now,” Hegseth said in a video posted on X Nov. 5, in which he largely defended himself against the impeachment push. “We need every vote from every patriotic member of Congress.”

But that now looks doomed.

Senate Democrats already opposed the annual defense authorization bill. And the loss of several House Republicans presumed to be in safe seats will make it difficult to get the near-perfect attendance needed to pass a party-line bill before Democrats take over.

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(With assistance from Ken Tran, Ellen Milligan and Joe Mathieu.)

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