New Zealand government holds narrow lead in election nail-biter

Ainsley Thomson and Tracy Withers, Bloomberg News on Nov 7, 2026

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New Zealand’s center-right governing coalition has a path to return to power after taking a narrow lead in a closely fought election.

With 97% of the vote counted early Sunday, the National Party and its allies the libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First party have 67 seats between them, enough to govern in a 130-seat parliament. But that small majority could yet be overturned when special ballots are counted, and the opposition hasn’t conceded defeat.

“It is heartening to see that on the numbers so far, National is once again the largest party in parliament, and we have a pathway to forming the next government,” Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said, addressing supporters just after midnight. “But I have to tell you right now, it is too close to call.”

One of the big stories of the night was the rise of the centrist Opportunity Party, which will enter parliament for the first time and could end up holding the balance of power once the final result is known at the end of the month.

The left-leaning bloc of the Labour Party, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori have 56 seats. Opportunity has seven seats, which may come into play if special votes favor the left as they have in the past.

While National — with the support of its coalition partners — is ahead on the night, it has been a difficult election for the party. It has lost a number of its top lawmakers including Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Speaker Gerry Brownlee, and probably Attorney General Chris Bishop and Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. The party also lost almost nine percentage points of support from the 38.1% it polled in the 2023 election.

“Some of the hardest phone calls tonight have been to colleagues and friends who look unlikely to make it back into parliament,” Luxon said. “In particular, I’m thinking of our most incredible deputy leader, Nicola Willis. I want to thank you, Nicola, for your dedication, for your determination, and for your years of service to our party in this great country of ours.”

The overhang

The math to form a government is messy and evolved as the vote count progressed.

“Tonight, New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said,” Labour Leader Chris Hipkins joked when he addressed supporters. “Every vote matters, and every vote must now be counted.”

New Zealand’s parliament usually has 120 lawmakers, but this election is complicated by a predicted “overhang” that, on current projections, would swell their number to 130. That means 65 seats are needed for a majority. Still, that number may change as several hundred thousand special votes are counted over the coming weeks.

An overhang is a quirk of the nation’s mixed-member proportional voting system. Each voter has two votes — one for a local electorate candidate and another for a party. An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than the number of it would otherwise be entitled to based on its share of the party vote.

Both National and Te Pāti Māori have produced overhangs by winning more electorates than their share of the party vote would otherwise entitle them to.

Negotiations ahead

“It is looking very likely that after a decade, the Opportunity Party is going to make history tonight,” leader Qiulae Wong told supporters in Auckland earlier on Saturday night. “You guys have voted for unity over division. You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good.”

The preliminary results put National and Labour in a dead heat with 29.3% of the vote each. Among minor parties, the Greens had 13.3% support, ACT was on 11%, New Zealand First had 9.8%, while Opportunity had 6%.

Wong reiterated Saturday evening in an interview with 1 News that her party would negotiate first with the party that had the most seats in parliament. On the current count that is National.

However, Luxon repeatedly said prior to the election he will not form a coalition with Opportunity because of the smaller party’s land-tax policy. Wong has said the tax is not a “bottom line” to be included in any coalition agreement.

New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters didn’t address whether his party could work in a coalition with Opportunity when he spoke to his supporters Saturday evening.

“A lot of people are getting carried away right here, right now, about what the outcome means,” he said. “It’d be very wise if they held their counsel for a bit longer.”

ACT leader David Seymour, who is currently deputy prime minister, told journalists on Saturday night that he had always been a “little bit confused” by Luxon’s position on Opportunity.

He said that if it was “the people’s will” that Opportunity was in parliament, “then you’d be silly not to want to form a government with them.”