Ayatollahs Can't Change; They Can Only Die

Austin Bay on Jun 17, 2026

Understand Iran's ayatollah regime cannot change its behavior -- at least it can't change and remain the regime founded by the Ayatollah Khomeini.

Here's why. Since 1979, the regime has declared it will ultimately rule the world -- oh, yes. Iran's Islamic revolutionary regime will also play a central role in human history's final days.

Religious and political fanatics -- especially privileged maniacs who have slaughtered their domestic opponents for 47 years -- eventually become so spoiled by their unchecked local power that they lose any sense of moral and political limitation. Freed from in your-face-opposition, fueled by petro-cash, they declare their history-altering ambitions and millenarian propaganda hokum are universal reality. Yes, reality. They are fulfilling Allah's will, so what they say goes.

Especially when they get a nuke.

A regime with this core faith and fundamental mission can only die -- die by collapse from internal corruption, or be destroyed by external military force -- I presume, given the Khomeinist frame tale, by the forces of Satan.

There is strong evidence external forces have wreaked great destruction, destruction courtesy of the United States and Israel. Tehran's mullahs call them (respectively) the Great Satan and the Little Satan.

The Trump administration estimates that (since the end of February) pinpoint American and Israeli air and missile "decapitation" attacks have killed the top two levels of Iranian leaders and removed part of the third.

Does this constitute fractional regime change?

President Donald Trump says leaders in this fractional third echelon have engaged in serious negotiations. This coming Friday (June 19), a remnant representative will sign an agreement.

I understand the agreement commits the fractional regime to a diplomatic, economic and security process that will end Iran's nuclear weapons program, but we won't know the agreement's details until June 19. The details matter. Any "process" gives the Iranian regimeniks opportunities to stall, backslide, lie, cheat and continue to kill their own people. Any process gives the remnants the opportunity to send money and guns to their proxy terror organizations Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

The facts on the ground, however, say the ayatollah regime lost and lost big.

The U.S. and Israeli militaries dealt Iran a huge military defeat. The remnant regime has no navy and no air force. (This increases regime vulnerability but also makes resupplying proxies more difficult.)

American and Israeli attacks obliterated Iran's air and space defenses and wrecked its communications systems. I've read estimates that 90% of Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capacity has been destroyed. All of these count as operational military victories. If the remnant regime has the money, it would take a decade at a minimum to replace lost equipment -- perhaps two decades.

If it has the money. As 2026 began, Iran's economy was stalling. Now the country is economically devastated. (This makes funding their proxies more difficult.)

All in all, the military, economic and collateral material damage could take 25 years to replace and repair. Does this damage the regime vis a vis its population by stoking anti-regime sentiments? We don't know, yet.

Credit Trump with getting the fractional regime to conduct face-to-face negotiations to end its nuclear weapons quest. Trump also has Gulf Arab states acting in concert economically and militarily.

Thus Trump's no-nukes war and diplomacy utterly best and outclass Barack Obama's hideous 2015 moral, mental and economic capitulation to Ayatollah Iran's nuclear weapons quest. Under Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran could temporarily deny inspectors access to military facilities. Denial began a two-week negotiating period -- to hide illegal equipment. Tehran also got $50 to $150 billion more to buy the perception of a deal. With that money, the ayatollah regime waged a dozen small proxy wars and financed nuclear weapons research and ballistic missile production.

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To find out more about Austin Bay and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

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