ArcaMax

SAN DIEGO -- The war against Iran ought to be rebranded, from Operation Epic Fury to "Mr. Trump's Wild Ride."

President Donald Trump is winning the war militarily, but losing it diplomatically. I miss the old days when a president, if he wanted to get a message out, had to use the media as a conduit through press conferences, Oval Office interviews, or even the deliberate leaking of a story.

Today, Trump just goes on Truth Social, his own personal digital megaphone, and blasts out whatever half-baked thought pops into his head. The idea of a president sharing with the world -- to friend and foe alike -- what he's thinking, planning or strategizing while the United States is at war isn't just irresponsible. It's criminal.

It has now become a national security imperative that someone yank Trump's cell phone out of his hand and smash it with a hammer.

The 50,000 or so U.S. soldiers, airmen, sailors and Marines who are now in the Persian Gulf are well-trained, highly capable professionals who are really good at their jobs. Our politicians, not so much.

A few months before Trump was elected president for the second time, a friend who was leaning toward voting for him tried to convince me (and perhaps himself) that one of Trump's greatest assets was his unpredictable, irregular and erratic behavior.

The argument was that, if Trump ever found himself embroiled in a foreign conflict, it would be helpful to him that his opponent would not have the faintest idea what he was going to do next. That would give him leverage and increase his chances of victory, my friend said.

If this sounds familiar, it should. What I'm describing is the so-called "madman theory." It's a risky diplomatic strategy designed to make one's adversaries think that a leader is volatile and mentally unstable, so they will make sweeping concessions to avoid a violent and irrational response by the alleged madman.

If you've ever studied political philosophy, you might remember reading about the madman in the writings of 15th-century Italian statesman and philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli.

Or if you happen to be a Baby Boomer, born between 1946 and 1964, you might be having a flashback to something that scarred and shaped the entire generation: the Vietnam War.

Former President Richard Nixon tried to convince North Vietnam and their backers in the Soviet Union that he would do whatever it took to win the war. It didn't work. Once the Soviets figured out that Nixon's bluster was all bluff, they stopped believing anything he said. Without believability, the madman theory collapses.

Now that Trump been at war with Iran for nearly two months, a lot of Americans in both political parties are concerned that another collapse may be imminent.

Who is winning the standoff in the Persian Gulf -- the United States, or Iran? Who knows? No matter what argument you make, you can find evidence to support it.

It turns out my friend forgot to mention a few things. Nowadays, even in a casual conversation, it pays to read the fine print.

First, it might be that the reason other countries don't know what Trump will do next is that Trump doesn't know. The zigzag, back-and-forth nature of his war strategy -- if there even is one -- suggests that he is making it up as he goes along. That's dangerous.

Second, it helps if the adversary scares easily. They have to conclude that they have more to lose by assuming a war footing than they would by throwing in the towel. Iran has a high tolerance for pain, and it doesn't scare easily. That's inconvenient.

Third, any confusion must remain in the theater of war and not be allowed to drift back to the homeland. Trump's scattered thoughts, emotional outbursts and endless falsehoods must be exhausting for the Iranians. But they also take a toll on Americans.

Our madman is also a magician and master of distraction. Through exaggerations and rhetorical sleight of hand, he creates chaos and uncertainty. He declares that the Strait of Hormuz is open, that the Iranians have agreed to not enrich uranium, that the war is over and we won and that thousands of troops will soon be coming home.

Not a word of it is true. In a sense, my friend's prediction about Trump came true. The madman theory worked, maybe a little too well.

The Iranians are no doubt confused and totally in the dark about what Trump will do next. The trouble is, they're not the only ones.

========

To find out more about Ruben Navarrette and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

Copyright 2026 Creators Syndicate, Inc.