Greg Cote's Week 3 NFL picks

Our NFL picks in the Miami Herald, the “Friday Page,” began 36 seasons ago in 1991, when Dan Marino was still in his Pro Bowl prime, the Grateful Dead had the highest-grossing music tour, and LeBron James was a 7-year-old kid in Akron. Sad to say that long run ends here. Our Week 3 picks will be our last in the Herald because (as you may have hard) I’ve been laid off. Our NFL picks will continue but they’ll be on Substack beginning with Week 4, so join us there! Meantime we’re coming off a rough Week 2 against the spread. Ouch! Highlight? Near Exacto on Niners whuppin’ Miami. Game was 35-13; I had 34-13. Lost two games ATS by a half-point, but no excuses. Time to finish the Herald era strong!

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— Week 2: 10-6, .625 overall; 5-11, .313 vs. spread.

— Season: 19-13, .594 overall; 12-19-1, .391 vs. spread.

— Final 2025: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 vs. spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

DOLPHINS (0-2) at CHIEFS (2-0)

Line: KC by 11 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 34-13.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

The rebuilding Dolphins — and by rebuilding I mean real bad, but with an excuse — have lost by 14 to a lousy Raiders team and by 22 to a very good 49ers team. Now here comes another very good team. Uh-oh. The Fins will get a bit of a charge here from their home opener, but not enough to make up for the Chiefs’ big advantages in inexperience and talent. Dolphins have been outscored 62-26 and such disparity should continue here as Patrick Mahomes and RB Kenneth Walker III won’t be stopped ... at least not nearly enough. Miami also takes a hit from possible absence of rookie top receiver Caleb Douglas (ankle), who might be limited if he plays at all. K-City has won five straight meetings with Fins and past two trips to Miami, and those trends should extend. When last these teams met KC won a 26-7 playoff game at Arrowhead after the 2023 season in frostbitten winter. Sunday won’t be much better, only warmer. ESPN’s Football Power Index already has lowered the Dolphins’ chances of making the playoffs to 0.1%. So please do not measure success this season by number of wins (unless you’re into masochism). Instead measure it by improvement, bright spots and hints of hope. Gonna be a long year, folks.

GAME OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (1-1) vs. COWBOYS (1-1) in Brazil

Line: BAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 34-31.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

Why our Game of the Week? 1). Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry make Baltimore a Super Bowl contender. 2). Dallas isn’t that, but it’s always fun watching Jerry Jones look unhappy up in a suite. 3). Should be a scoring explosion, a points party. And 4). Rio de Janeiro, baby! Carnival meets football! The second of this season’s record eight international games is the third ever in Brazil but the first in Rio. Lean BAL outright but DAL to cover. Brazilians will see two potent offenses at Maracana Stadium but one clearly better defense in Baltimore’s. Might not be as exciting as a nil-nil draw between Gremio and Palmeiras, but it will have to do.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

TITANS (0-2) at GIANTS (1-1)

Line: NYG by 3.

Cote’s pick: TEN, 19-16.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” belts the Upset Bird. “Tennessaawwk!” Giants QB Jaxson Dart had season-ending knee surgery despite Donald Trump’s executive order to rescind the injury, and it’s a steep drop to backup Jameis Winston, the Interception King. NYG also off a short week after playing last Monday. Still admittedly a debatable pick; shaky taking Titans against anybody. But gut-feeing a nice day for Cam Ward against a beatable Biggies secondary. “As Jimmy Buffett once sang,” notes U-Bird. “And those harbor lights, Lord, they’re coming into view. It’s been a lovely cruise. Lovely craaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 3:

Thursday night pick was @Packers (1-1, -5 1/2) over Falcons (0-2), 24-17: Find that complete prediction capsule separately here.

@Bills (2-0, -7) over Chargers (0-2), 31-20: Early heat on ex-Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, now leading the Chargers’ sputtering offense. Harsh to give up on Justin Herbert et. al at 0-2, but the schedule next two months turns brutal ... starting here. Buffalo is a tough place for a struggling foe to get right, especially with the Bills rested after playing last Thursday.

Panthers (1-1, -2 1/2) over @Browns (1-1), 23-17: Will Deshaun Watson, coming off a win and playing pretty well so far, be booed by fans at Browns home opener as he was in preseason? Maybe after the first interception? Bryce Young and the Cats have put up 71 points in two games, and Carolina’s defense is early leader in takeaways.

@Lions (1-1, -6 1/2) over Jets (1-1), 28-20: Detroit is home and rested off a Thursday game, and Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs Amon-Ra St. Brown have been as advertised for a top-tier offense. Jets coach Aaron Glenn is a former Lions defensive coordinator, but won’t have enough D at his disposal Sunday to stop Motown.

Texans (0-2, -2 1/2) over @Colts (0-2), 24-20: Trends are a dicey thing. So when I say Houston has won five in a row in this division series including four straight at Indy ... is the trend your friend or is the trend bound to end? C.J. Stroud and that offense (even likely missing Nico Collins) can score on Colts, and Indy’s shaky O-line won’t handle Texans’ pass rush.

Bengals (2-0, -3 1/2) over @Steelers (1-1), 20-17: AFC North rivals have split games the past two seasons and are close again. But Joe Burrow’s offense is a bit healthier, and Cincy’s pass rush will bother Aaron Rodgers. But I like Pittsburgh at home getting that extra half point on the bet-line in a low-points affair.

Seahawks (2-0, -7) over @Commanders (0-2), 34-7: Will Comms coach Dan Quinn survive much longer? Losing Jayden Daniels to a serious left elbow injury won’t help as journeyman backup Marcus Mariota starts in Washington’s home opener. Better QB news for Seattle as Sam Darnold seems set to return after two games out. Hawks have won 12 in a row dating to last season, and their elite defense should dominate.

@Jaguars (1-1, -3) over Patriots (1-1), 27-20: A nervous pick because you know Drake Maye can’t keep being this bad ... can he? His fantasy owners (me included) are antsy. But I like Jax at home. Trevor Lawrence is climbing to a new level this season, and I think Jaguars defense is real good. Good enough to continue Maye’s early season woes.

@49ers (2-0, -8 1/2) over Cardinals (1-1), 30-13: San Fran has won two straight and six of past eight over this division rival, and Brock Purdy has this offense percolating. And how about old Mike Evans, huh? He’s iffy (hip) but has been a nice addition. Another big day for Purdy, especially with Arizona’s cornerback injuries.

@Buccaneers (0-2, +1 1/2) over Vikings (2-0), 20-17: Upset! I get why Vikes are favored. Baker Mayfield has 17 turnovers in his past 13 games. (They should call him Bakery.) Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense is havoc-inducing. And the 0-2 start has Todd Bowles floating to the top of first-coach-fired betting odds. So call it a hunch, but I love a home dog with desperation on its side.

@Saints (1-1, -3) over Raiders (2-0), 31-24: I don’t trust Vegas and its 2-0 start under interception factory Kirk Cousins, although season debut of TE Brock Bowers will help. I am beginning to buy the revival of the Saints behind Tyler Shough, Chris Olave and that offense. N’Awlins’ home opener provides an additional bump.

@Broncos (1-1, +2 1/2) over Rams (1-1), 24-23: Upset! Sunday night stage gets our Game of the Week runner-up and what for me was the toughest pick of Week 3. Denver’s home edge is magnified by high altitude, Broncos expect to have RB J.K. Dobbins back, and Rams arrive off a short week after playing last Monday. Matthew Stafford also seems unlikely again to have top WR Puka Nacua (groin). Denver is on 8-1 run at home and 16-4 in last 20 games at Mile High.

Eagles (2-0, -4 1/2) over @Bears (1-1), 27-23: Monday night gets a big NFC matchup but one diminished by injury. Chicago QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is expected to be out, backup Tyson Bagent has been in concussion protocol and so third-stringer Case Keenum has taken first-team snaps this week. Keenum, 38, is poised for only his fifth start since 2020. I’m still putting out an Upset Alert on this one. Bears remain a tempting home dog I’ll take with the points. Philly hasn’t wowed us in two over bad teams by a combined six points.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.]