Sam Farmer's Week 3 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 3 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted an 11-5 (.688) record. Through the first two weeks of the season, he is 18-14 (.563).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 2 would have been 8-8 (.500). For the season, his record against the spread is 11-21 (.344).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.

Falcons (0-2) at Packers (1-1)

Tonight, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Packers by 6½. O/U: 43½.

The Packers don't lose home openers. The Falcons are getting Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback, so that could make this more interesting. They can run the ball, too, so that will be a test for the Packers' defense.

Pick: Packers 28, Falcons 20

Chargers (0-2) at Bills (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 7. O/U: 50½.

The Chargers are disjointed, and they aren't playing with much passion — a strange look for a Jim Harbaugh team. Traveling across the country to face Josh Allen and a Bills team that has scored 77 points in two weeks is no small task.

Pick: Bills 27, Chargers 23

Panthers (1-1) at Browns (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Panthers by 2½. O/U: 41½.

The Browns had a second-half surge and came from behind to upset Tampa Bay, and that should give them a confidence boost. Is that enough to hold off a Carolina team coming off a 34-3 stomping of Atlanta? I like Carolina.

Pick: Panthers 21, Browns 17

Jets (1-1) at Lions (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 6½. O/U: 47½.

Aaron Glenn returns to Detroit to face a defense he once oversaw. The Jets are better than a lot of people expected, and the Lions have their share of problems even though they have scored 31 in consecutive weeks. Detroit wins a close one.

Pick: Lions 24, Jets 21

Texans (0-2) at Colts (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 2½. O/U: 42½.

The Texans have beaten the Colts five times in a row, but those were all close games. Houston's defense is really strong, but I like Daniel Jones and the Colts bouncing back from their overtime loss and holding serve at home.

Pick: Colts 23, Texans 18

Chiefs (2-0) at Dolphins (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 10½. O/U: 45½.

Patrick Mahomes has been remarkable on his rebuilt knee, and the Chiefs should win this one pretty easily. The Dolphins scored 13 points in each of their two losses. More scoring this week? Maybe, but the game won't be pretty.

Pick: Chiefs 20, Dolphins 17

Titans (0-2) at Giants (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Giants by 2½. O/U: 39½.

Jameis Winston will get a week of preparation — albeit a short week — and that will help. Also helps that the Titans aren't very good. Still, this game will be closer than it should be, with the Giants holding on at home.

Pick: Giants 24, Titans 20

Bengals (2-0) at Steelers (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 3½. O/U: 42½.

Joe Burrow can do some damage, and so can Chase Brown. Most impressive to this point is the Cincinnati defense, which swarmed the Texans in Houston last Sunday. Slowing the Bengals receivers will be a test for the Steelers.

Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 21

Seahawks (2-0) at Commanders (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Seahawks by 6½. O/U: 40½.

Both teams are playing with backup quarterbacks, and the real difference here is Seattle's smothering defense. That should present quite a challenge for Marcus Mariota, facing a defense that shut down the Patriots and Cardinals.

Pick: Seahawks 23, Commanders 13

Patriots (1-1) at Jaguars (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 2½. O/U: 45½.

With A.J. Brown hurt and the rest of the receivers only mildly threatening, the pressure is on Drake Maye to deliver. What's more, the Patriots are minus-three in turnover differential, which is near the bottom of the league.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Patriots 21

Cardinals (1-1) at 49ers (2-0)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 8½. O/U: 47½.

The Cardinals took a step back after rolling over the Chargers in the opener. The 49ers didn't show any Australia hangover last week, and look like one of the league's elite teams. The Cardinals are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10.

Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 20

Vikings (2-0) at Buccaneers (0-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 1½. O/U: 42½.

Minnesota's defense has the Vikings at 2-0, putting them in good position for a Kyler Murray return. The winless Buccaneers are better than their start, and they should have a bounce back at home after an embarrassing loss to Cleveland.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Vikings 21

Ravens (1-1) at Cowboys (1-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 42½.

Baltimore's passing game should be able to take advantage of a banged-up Cowboys secondary. Field conditions in Rio de Janeiro could affect the strategies, especially with lots of players dealing with lower-body injuries.

Pick: Ravens 27, Cowboys 24

Raiders (2-0) at Saints (1-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 43½.

The Saints are slow starters but they have looked good down the stretch of games. The Raiders are 2-0 for the first time since 2021 and are getting Brock Bowers back. Figures to be close, but I like the Saints at home.

Pick: Saints 24, Raiders 20

Rams (1-1) at Broncos (1-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Rams by 2½. O/U: 45½.

Even without Puka Nacua, the Rams' offense got on track Monday night. Denver is a tough place to play, and the Broncos defense is stout. That Denver offense will have a difficult time matching Matthew Stafford touchdown for touchdown, though.

Pick: Rams 27, Broncos 23

Eagles (2-0) at Bears (1-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 4½. O/U: 41½.

With Chicago's quarterback situation in serious flux, the Eagles have the edge. But Philadelphia is hobbled, too, with Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert both missing time last Sunday. Still, losing your quarterback trumps that.

Pick: Eagles 24, Bears 18

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