Analysis: Here are Seahawks' chances to earn top seed in NFC
Published in Football
SEATTLE — Are there any silver linings to the situation facing the Seahawks after the 17-14 overtime defeat Thursday night against the Denver Broncos?
Any historical precedents the team can rely on? And just how inexplicable was the defeat Thursday from a statistical standpoint and is there anything else ailing Seattle’s offense aside from Sam Darnold’s interceptions?
Let’s delve into those topics in this Four Downs with Seahawks beat reporter Bob Condotta.
Is all hope lost for the Seahawks for the top seed in the NFC?
A 3-3 record obviously is not what anyone expected of the Seahawks at this point in the season. It might be an obvious point, but they would have to win out to match the 14-3 mark of last season.
That’s what it might take to pass the 49ers and win the NFC.
San Francisco is 5-0, favored by 7.5 points at home against the Commanders on Monday night and plays what Tankathon.com rates as the ninth-easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Seahawks play the fourth hardest.
It won’t be an easy task and is somewhat out of the Seahawks' hands. As they say, they no longer “control their own destiny thanks to the two defeats in the past five days.
Should the 49ers falter and the Seahawks right the ship, the good news is the rest of the NFC might be catchable.
Minnesota, where longtime former Seahawks personnel executive Nolan Teasley is in his first year as the GM, is one of the surprises of the league at 5-0.
But the Vikings play the hardest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and are winning largely because of their defense and a plus-six turnover margin.
Everyone else in the conference has at least two losses other than the Giants, who are 3-1-1 but have played the easiest schedule in the NFL and are, well, the Giants.
The Seahawks have a lot of work to fix their own issues, and no question the 49ers are the runaway favorite in the NFC at the moment. But there’s a lot of football left.
Can a team that won the Super Bowl rebound from a 3-3 start to get back to another one?
Yes, a team can.
And Seahawks fans might remember it well as their team did just that in 2014, losing two consecutive in October to fall to 3-3, leading to conjecture that the team’s run was already over.
You might recall those Seahawks — led by the best defense in the NFL — lost just one more game until the Super Bowl (we don’t need to remind you what happened there).
Like this team, that squad dug a hole in the NFC West as Arizona was 5-1 and had a two-game lead in the division in mid-October.
That team’s surge began following the trade of Percy Harvin and after a mistake-filled defeat at St. Louis to fall to 3-3. The Seahawks outgained the Rams 463-275 but were done in by 10 penalties and allowing two long returns and, after falling behind 21-3 early, crawled back to 28-26 before the Rams pulled off a fake punt (a Johnny Hekker pass) to get a final first down to run out the clock.
Sound sorta familiar?
Some of the details are obviously different. That team, for instance, had Marshawn Lynch in his last full, healthy year with the Seahawks to help power a running game that led the NFL in yards per carry.
What’s similar is a defense that is as good as any in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing just 4.0 yards per play, leading the NFL by .6 of a yard per play after holding Denver to just 2.95 yards.
The 2014 team held six of its final 10 foes to fewer than 10 points, including Arizona twice, victories that allowed the Seahawks to overtake the Cardinals. This team has a tougher road, having already lost to the 49ers.
The 2014 team also had an in-his-prime Russell Wilson in a season in which he threw just seven interceptions — as many as Darnold has thrown in the past four games.
But history shows it can be done.
What else is to blame for the offense’s woes?
There’s understandable focus on Darnold in the wake of the past four games. There’s also much consternation about the running game, which will only get more scrutiny this week with the Kansas City Chiefs and Kenneth Walker III coming to town.
Thursday night revealed that the offensive line has appeared to regress some from last season despite entering the season with the same five starters.
Darnold was sacked five times for the second consecutive week and was hit a season-high 17 times. He’s been sacked 13 times in the past three games compared to just 27 all last season.
Some of those are on Darnold for hanging on to the ball.
Some of it is on the guys up front. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks' three defeats this season — in which they have lost 10 turnovers with Darnold throwing two picks in each — are the three games in which they have allowed the most pressure since the beginning of last season.
That pressure got to Darnold. Via SumerSports, he was 21 of 30 against the Broncos for 220 yards when not pressure but 7 of 20 for 58 yards with five sacks and four throwaways when he was pressured.
Pro Football Focus has the Seahawks' pass blocking grade at 56.9 compared to 63.9 last season.
The Broncos had particular success attacking the right side of the Seahawks' line. Right tackle Abraham Lucas gave up two sacks, via PFF, while right guard Christian Haynes gave up one (the other two were credited as coverage sacks).
Running back George Holani, who often plays on third downs, was judged as allowing four hurries in 13 pass block snaps.
Via PFF, Lucas has given up four sacks this year in 230 pass block snaps compared to four all last season in 624 pass block snaps.
Those numbers, if course, don’t tell the whole story. Scheme and what the team is asking the O-line to do on any given play also factor in.
But it does help illustrate coach Mike Macdonald’s point that there’s a lot at play in fixing the offense.
The Denver game was a strange one, wasn’t it?
Yes, it was.
The Seahawks lost despite allowing just 168 yards, the fourth fewest in the Macdonald era, and the fourth fewest allowed by Seattle in a game since 2015.
As reported by ESPN, Denver’s yardage total was its lowest in a victory since 1983.
On Denver’s last 10 drives, the Broncos ran 29 plays for just 32 yards.
You might be asking if that’s the fewest yards the Seahawks have ever allowed in a loss.
It’s actually not, but you have to go back a ways.
In 1999, the Seahawks lost to Tampa Bay 16-3 despite giving up just 156 yards and lost 28-7 to Kansas City in 1985 despite allowing just 165 yards.
As you might imagine, turnovers were a big part of each defeat.
They had a 6-0 turnover deficit in the 1999 loss to the Bucs and 7-4 in 1985 against the Chiefs. In the latter game, the Seahawks outgained Kansas City 369-165 and didn’t allow a sack. But four Dave Krieg interceptions proved fatal.
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