Chris Perkins: Recent NFL history hints at what happens next if Dolphins get three or fewer wins

Chris Perkins, South Florida Sun-Sentinel on Oct 16, 2026

Published in Football

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — You might know me as the guy who thinks the winless and rebuilding Miami Dolphins will win five games this season.

But a while back I got to thinking …

“What if the Dolphins (0-5) only win three or fewer games this season? What could fans expect in the next three or four years?”

So, I took an anecdotal look at the 10 teams that won three or fewer games in a season between 2020 and 2024. I also split that group into a smaller sub-group of teams that won three or fewer games between 2020 and 2022. I looked at how long, after having a three-win season, it took to have a winning record, make a playoff appearance and advance to a Super Bowl.

The outlook actually isn’t that bad.

One of the main takeaways is that turnarounds can now be accomplished fairly quickly.

Recent NFL history shows if the Dolphins win three or fewer games this season there’s a reasonable chance they could have a winning record within the next three seasons, win a playoff game within the next three years, and post a double-digit win total within the next four seasons.

But the outlook also isn’t that good.

No team that’s won three or fewer games in season since 2020 has reached a Super Bowl. The 2023 Detroit Lions came closest by advancing to the 2024 NFC championship game.

In short, teams that won three or fewer games between 2020-22 had more success bouncing back quickly than the ones that sank to that level more recently.

Obviously, coaching and front-office changes, quarterback changes and other major factors affected these results. But this surface-level research is merely meant to identify trends, not take a deep dive into their causes.

Here’s what I found when I looked at the six teams that won three or fewer games in a season between 2020-22:

— Five of those six teams posted a winning record within the next three years: the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars, the 2021 Jaguars, the 2021 Detroit Lions, the 2022 Houston Texans and 2022 Chicago Bears;

— Four of the six teams won at least one playoff game in the three-year span after winning three or fewer games, and they posted a combined 7-7 postseason record (Houston was 3-3, Detroit was 2-2, and Jacksonville and Chicago were each 1-1);

— Four of those six teams won at least 11 games within four years after their three-win season. The 2023 Lions went 12-5 after finishing 3-13-1 in 2021; The 2024 Lions went 15-2; the 2025 Texans went 12-5 after finishing 3-13-1 in 2021; the 2025 Bears went 11-6 after finishing 3-14 in 2022.

Expanding the field, here’s what I found when I took a look at the 10 teams that won three or fewer games in a season between 2020-24:

— The average amount of wins in the season after winning three or fewer games is six (actually, 5.9);

— Only three of those 10 teams had a winning record the year after winning three games: the 2022 Jaguars went 9-8 after finishing 3-14 in 2021; the 2022 Lions went 9-8 after finishing 3-13-1 in 2021; the 2023 Texans went 10-7 after finishing 3-13-1 in 2022;

— None of those 10 teams has been to a Super Bowl.

As for recent results, most of the eight teams that won three or fewer games between 2023-25 are struggling to recover.

The Carolina Panthers were the only team that won three or fewer games in 2023, going 2-15. The Panthers went 5-12 in 2024, and 8-9 last season. Of course, they also won the NFC South last season so perhaps that year counts as mixed success.

In 2024, the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants each went 3-14. Last season none won more than five games. But the Giants (3-1-1) and Browns (3-2) are off to respectable starts this season.

In 2025, the New York Jets, Tennessee, Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals all went 3-14. Las Vegas (3-2) is the only team trending in the right direction so far this season.

The bottom line? There’s a group of teams between 2020-22 that caught fire a few years after winning three or fewer games.

But for the most part, recent anecdotal history shows that if a team has three wins or fewer in a season it can keep a Super Bowl appearance off its radar any time soon, even though there’s a decent chance of making the playoffs quickly.